Friday, August 14, 2015
I Didn't Build It, But I Earned It
I'm taking a break from my usual sports rants that I do to talk about something that I hear from a lot of people and I think it's kind of funny. This blog post actually started out as a Facebook status but it turned into something bigger. I'm currently watching a Masterchef episode (I'm a few behind at this point) and someone was given an opportunity to go to the next round without participating in the elimination test. If you don't watch Masterchef, it's actually pretty good as far as cooking shows go. I do have a Gordon Ramsay bias though.
This contestant refused the invitation for a "free pass" to make it into the next round. She said things like "I want to earn my spot in the next round, not become the next Masterchef by taking a free ride" and "everything in my life I earn." I hear these kinds of things from a lot of blue-collar people, a lot of them poor, a lot of them democrats. It's a point of pride. I think it represents this sense of integrity, this sense of honor and achievement, a sense of virtue. It all seems really misplaced. In fact, I think it's all rather selfish and self-serving while trying to give off the impression that it's noble and respectable.
I know this may rub some people the wrong way, and I apologize if it does. My intention isn't to offend, it's to show my opinion, my point of view. With that said, my opinion is that nobody makes it truly by themselves, no matter the level of success. First of all, you're not able to eat, poop, walk, talk, or do anything for the first few years of your life. You owe your existence here to your parents in more ways than one. That's a given...everyone makes that argument though. Still, your parents don't stop helping, influencing, teaching, and guiding you throughout your life. Your success is, at least in part, theirs as well.
Next, you have teachers who taught you things along the way. You owe a little bit to them for teaching you those things that enabled your success, right? You didn't learn anything on your own. By teachers, I don't mean just schoolteachers. Anyone who had a hand in enlightening you in some way is included here.
Of course you have people that are more successful individually. There are people that do more on their own, who are more entrepreneurial. There's no disputing that some people do more than others. My point is no one completely does it on their own, and to think so is selfish.
Opportunities present themselves in many ways. Not all of them are earned. Some of them come to you freely, either as gifts from God, the universe, or the simple fact that they just happen. Whatever you believe. This isn't meant to be a religious post; it's really not. Sometimes you just get lucky. I loved when a prominent member of the Spurs came out after they won their 3rd or 4th championship and basically said that there's always a little bit of luck in winning a championship. Without those breaks, those "free passes" that happen from time to time, you wouldn't be where you are.
When President Obama was up against Mitt Romney, he gave a speech that ended up as the central focus of the republican campaign. He was talking about a similar topic: how you get help in life and don't get where you are completely by yourself. I was shocked at how many people misinterpreted that saying for days, weeks, and even months! People today still think he meant that people don't build their own businesses...still. Whether you're a conservative or a liberal, it's important to know what he actually said and not what the media says he said. Here is what he actually said in that speech:
There are a lot of wealthy, successful Americans who agree with me — because they want to give something back. They know they didn’t — look, if you’ve been successful, you didn’t get there on your own. You didn’t get there on your own. I’m always struck by people who think, well, it must be because I was just so smart. There are a lot of smart people out there. It must be because I worked harder than everybody else. Let me tell you something — there are a whole bunch of hardworking people out there. (Applause.)
If you were successful, somebody along the line gave you some help. There was a great teacher somewhere in your life. Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges. If you’ve got a business — you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen. The Internet didn’t get invented on its own. Government research created the Internet so that all the companies could make money off the Internet.
The point is, is that when we succeed, we succeed because of our individual initiative, but also because we do things together.
If it wasn't clear from context clues, something we learn in grade school, he summarized his thoughts in the beginning of the last paragraph. He didn't say people who build things shouldn't take any credit. Duh...why wouldn't we think the person who built a road didn't...I dunno...build the road?! I am still surprised when I see people who think the president said business owners didn't build their own businesses. Not even close...in fact, exactly the opposite.
His point was that we didn't do it alone. We had some help along the way, even if just in the form of parents and teachers. Monetary help, investments, opportunities, partnerships...all of these could constitute as help as well. To me, saying you made it on your own with no help, that you refuse to take help when it's given, is selfish. If you don't allow other people to do things for you, that is the same as refusing to show charity to others. It breaks the charity transaction.
In the competition on Masterchef, the contestant ended up doing fine. She didn't need the pass. But I've noticed this is a trend on the show because it happens several times. First of all, this is a game...it's a competition. Why wouldn't you try to win and take a free pass if someone said, "Hey, wanna go to the next round right now?" Secondly, there's no moral bonus points for not taking it, for not helping yourself. There's nothing wrong with helping yourself. There's nothing wrong with having money. Rich people aren't more evil than poor people. Sure, there are a lot of bad rich people, but there are also a lot of bad poor people. Just like there are good rich people and good poor people. But rich doesn't mean evil...according to Emerson, poverty is the one that demoralizes, not wealth.
Enabling is different. But if someone offers you something, especially if you're in a position where you need it, I'm not saying to take it. I'm saying that if you do take it, you shouldn't have to feel like less of a human or less of a success because of it. Even the great ones got some help.
Saturday, August 8, 2015
The Browns Season Outlook
Football season is almost back!! As Cleveland sports fans, we face a dilemma: do we invest our time in the Cavs because they nearly pulled off a championship with six healthy players held together by duct tape or do we invest it in the Browns who are really good and getting better, not as good as the Cavs, but we love football more? We may be stupid for doing so, but come August and September, we patch the holes and then fill up our collective "hope" tank and sport two of the worst colors in sports franchises today: orange and brown.
In this blog post, I wanted to update those of you who don't have the time to pay attention to everything the Browns are doing. So here are some of the summations from the off-season, training camp, and what analysts have pegged around the league. First to Josh McCown and the QB situation.
QB's & RB's
When the Browns grabbed Josh McCown, my first thought was, "Crap...there goes next season." I knew there was a slim chance we'd be grabbing Mariota by then, the only QB in the draft who I thought would be any good. I don't really think Mariota will be a star, but I think he'll be decent.
So instead, the Browns stuck with Johnny Manziel (eye roll) and Josh McCown. McCown had several good games with the Bears two years ago, was horrible last year with the Bucs, and will now captain the Browns. There are some things the Browns have that those two teams don't. The Browns have a strong run game that those teams didn't. Doug Martin had a breakout season for the Bucs two years ago but had a sophomore slump. Matt Forte for the Bears is exceptional but is injury-prone. Even when the Browns Ben Tate got injured last year, they had two running backs who really stepped up and played well...and as rookies!
O-Line
The other thing the Browns have that partially explains their run game but really helps out QB's is their O-line. They have arguably the #1 offensive line in the NFL. Dallas arguably has the other. The Browns have the #1 offensive lineMAN in Joe Thomas. Alex Mack is one of the top centers (top paid, at least) and Joel Bitonio has been the perfect addition at left guard. The Browns just need to solidify the right side. While John Greco at guard and Mitchell Schwartz at tackle are good, with Schwartz being a little bit better, they're not as good as the left side. So, the Browns drafted Cameron Erving, a top OL who has the ability to play backup center. He is currently battling Greco for a starting spot at right guard. When Mack went down last season with an injury, so did the run game. This was the perfect O-lineman for the Browns to grab.
One of the top guys the Browns grabbed was right tackle Michael Bowie. He's been a standout in training camp this off-season. Again, it's only training camp, but Bowie was a starter on Seattle's championship O-line. He has the experience and has had success in the NFL, so I really like him. If he and Erving can hold down that right line (and they don't have to do it alone; Greco and Schwartz would be among the best backup O-linemen in the NFL, but right now they're starters due to a lack of depth on that side of the line), the Browns will clearly have the best O-line. I'm pretty sure the O-line rankings are as follows:
1. Joe Thomas
2. Alex Mack
3. Joel Bitonio
4. Mitchell Schwartz
5 (tied). John Greco and Cameron Erving
7. Michael Bowie
8. Everyone else
The browns tend to have a tight rotation, so I'm guessing 7-8 guys will be in the games. Thomas, Mack, and Bitonio don't come out. The others might, though.
Back to QB's
Which brings things back to McCown. He has clearly separated himself from the other QB's in camp, something Hoyer couldn't do. So I think he's better than Hoyer. However, I don't think he will be the Josh McCown of the Bears from two years ago, either. He's a journeyman QB; he's been a lot of places, he's old, and he's just good enough to make it as a viable backup. He's not our long-term answer at QB, but that's okay. Unlike a number of people, I don't think we have our franchise guy on the roster: Connor Shaw, Johnny Manziel, or Thaddeus Lewis. Terrelle Pryor did okay at QB last year but has been converted to WR. I'd actually be more intrigued by Pryor than anyone else. He went to Ohio State, so I've followed Pryor for some time now. In fact, I'm really happy he got those tattoos in college which led to Tressel's firing because now we have Urban Meyer, baby!!
Anyway, Pryor has slimmed down, gotten in good football shape, and has thrown for at least one touchdown, albeit on a trick play. I'm not a huge fan of trick plays, but I am to doing things that get us points. I'm also open to letting Pryor try out for the QB job. He never really learned the fundamentals of being an NFL quarterback, maybe he could be starter-caliber. I don't think he's a lock or anything and by no means should the Browns stop pursuing a bonified franchise QB. With Hoyer, I thought he had a shot at becoming a franchise-level QB for the Browns. When he didn't pan out, I felt that it was time to move on. Same thing goes for any Browns QB.
WR's
There are a couple of other battles raging besides O-line. One of the unexpected ones is at WR. I don't know why the fans were upset at the lack of WR selection in the draft. First of all, the value of WR's has gone down. It's pretty obvious when you look at some of the top teams. Let's take some of the top teams in the NFL over the past few seasons: New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, and the Seattle Seahawks. Look at their receiving corps...does anyone else want them? What do they all have in common? Situationally good defenses, good to great at QB, and solid coaching. This should give Browns fans hope because we have at least one of these, possibly two as we see more of Pettine's decisions being made. We just need that QB.
So with less of a need for top WR talent (how many championships do Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, and Antonio Brown have?), we don't need stars at WR. I think we actually have a really good WR corp. The Browns have two good to great WR's in Dwayne Bowe and Andrew Hawkins, but they also have newly-acquired Terelle Pryor (a big target, that's nice), Brian Hartline, Travis Benjamin, Taylor Gabriel, Vince Mayle, Darius Jennings, Josh Lenz, and Shane Wynn. Oh yeah, and if Josh Gordon ever gets his act together, we will have arguably the #1 WR in the league. Let's stop with the clamoring for an over-priced receiver when we already have a decent receiving corp and can use that money to pay a franchise QB. If I were to rank the WR's, it'd look something like this:
1. Andrew Hawkins
2. Dwayne Bowe (he could overtake #1)
3. Brian Hartline
4. Terelle Pryor (he could overtake #3)
5. Taylor Gabriel
6. Travis Benjamin
7. Darius Jennings
8. Shane Wynn
9. Vince Mayle
10. Josh Lenz
Again, if Josh Gordon gets his head together, all of these guys would slide down a slot. Some of these guys probably won't make it to the final roster, but may grab a spot on the practice squad. Some may stay relegated to special teams unless injuries come up.
RB's
An expected battle is raging at RB. Leading rusher Terrance West and touchdown-specialist Isaiah Crowell, both second-year players, are atop the mix. The Browns also drafted Duke Johnson. When I graded this pick for the draft, I gave it a C+. This isn't because he isn't a good player, because he is. Even though he only ran a 4.5, in the game he's got great acceleration, can hit cut-back lanes, and is very versatile.
Running backs tend to go through injuries a lot due to the nature of the position, so the Browns may keep four or five backs. Plus they work well on special teams. To begin training camp, there's also Shaun Draughn, Glenn Winston, and Luke Lundy competing for spots. On Monday the Browns also signed Timothy Flanders and Jalen Parmele. I have no idea who ranks where, I just know the top three are West, Crowell, and Johnson.
Then there's fullback Malcolm Johnson. For a long time, Chris Ogbonnaya was the Browns fullback while sized as a running back. This Johnson used to play tight end in college and is a great route runner. In fact, he received a lot of praise here from the coaching staff for his unique skill set. I personally love TE's for this exact reason: they can play multiple positions. They have the largest skill-set of any offensive player as they can block, catch, and run. On that note, tight end E.J Bibbs is also having a good training camp. He may see some time on the field this season with Johnson.
Defense
There's been a lot of upgrades on the defensive side, too. Tramon Williams, a veteran, is in the backfield with Joe Haden. Danny Shelton is doing a good job on the defensive line. Nate Orchard will develop into a good LB. Karlos Dansby comes back from injury. The defense is already great, if they can put these new pieces together, they'll be even better.
There is a lot to be happy about if you're a Browns fan. Ever since Jimmy Haslam has taken over, the Browns have steadily gotten better each year. This league has changed. It is now a quarterback-driven league. When experts come out at the beginning of the year to cross off teams who could make the super bowl, they're always the teams with below-average QB's. And the worst part is those experts are always right. The Colts went from the worst team in the league to a playoff team in a year. That's not a surprise because Andrew Luck is going to be a hall of famer. So until the Browns have that kind of guy...not an Andrew Luck because those only come along once in a generation, but a capable QB like Eli Manning or Joe Flacco. Until we get one of those kinds of guys, we won't be sniffing the super bowl anytime soon.
That said, we have a good shot at the playoffs this year if all goes well. We're good enough. Go Browns!!
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Thursday, June 18, 2015
Cavs Off-Season Outlook
The 2014-15 season is over and the Cleveland Cavaliers exceeded expectations. That was hard to do, since they had a lot placed on their shoulders. There was a lot of expectation-shifting during the year. At first they were high. Then watching the Cavs struggle to gel as a new team, they went down. The trades happened (Mozgov, Smith, and Shumpert) and they went back up again. LeBron went down for two weeks and they got a little lower. They went on a big run towards the end of the year and they went back up. They slowed down at the end of the year...back down. They started the playoffs playing really well and they went back up. Love goes out; they go down a little. Irving goes down...they go down a little more. Cavs lose game 1 of the NBA finals; they go down. They win the next two...some people switch their finals pick. Then they lose the next couple games and they go back down.
That's a lot of ups and downs. This off-season may be even more interesting than the last one. Injuries usually create that for any sport. Look at the QB position at Ohio State. Now there are three heisman-caliber candidates vying for one spot. I don't envy Urban Meyer...I'm just happy we have him. With injuries come doubts, questions, benefits and empathy. Would they have won with Irving? What about with Love? What about both? What holes do they have if Love and Irving are both back? Lots of questions to ask and answer going into the off-season.
Before discussing the players, let's start with the coach David Blatt. He was hired before LeBron decided to come back to Cleveland. So this coach was meant to build up a team, not manage a bunch of all-stars. He's never coached in the NBA before, not even as an assistant. This is such a unique situation. He's obviously not a great coach, no arguments there. I don't think he's even a good coach. I'm glad that Brian Windhorst from ESPN said this recently because it's what I've felt going into the playoffs. Blatt is not a great coach and will be on the chopping block unless LeBron feels he should stay. Why would James feel that way? Because with Blatt as the head coach, LeBron runs the team. Bring in a more experienced coach, and LeBron loses some of that control and power. If they hire a Thibbs or Scott Brooks, guys who are good coaches who believe themselves to be great, the dynamic of the team changes. If LeBron doesn't want that, it's up to Blatt if he wants to stay. My gut tells me that he stays at least another year.
It just so happens that almost every player will be a free agent this summer. There are a few players locked up for at least another year: Kyrie Irving, Joe Harris, Brendan Haywood, and Anderson Varejao. Irving is locked up at max money for multiple years as is Varejao. Harris has a couple more as he's on his rookie contract. This is Haywood's last year, but his contract is very interesting. Basically these types of contracts are rare in the NBA these days. He's got about $10 million on it for next year but it's non-guaranteed. This would allow the Cavs to trade him for a player worth $15 million a year and allow the team that gets Haywood the chance to cut him, saving themselves $25 in cap room. It would be a team such as the Pelicans who have a superstar or at least a star but want to rebuild. I'm 99% positive the Cavs aren't trading for Davis, but that's what the contract would allow them to do.
Irving deserves max money and Harris deserves his rookie contract. Harris may not be around very long. I think they'll try to move Haywood as they thought he'd be better than what he was this season. Varejao is interesting. Because of the emergence of Mozgov (they really only got him because Varejao got injured) and Thompson along with the need to pay Love max or near-max money, they may decide to re-structure Varejao's contract. He is scheduled to make $9.6 million this upcoming season and $10 million each of the following two seasons. He's getting older and more injury-prone. What the Cavs would like to do is pay him a little less so they can make some room for Thompson, Mozgov, and Love. If they could get Varejao down to around $6 million, that would easily allow the Cavs to pay Thompson close to $10.5 million without taking on additional salary. Whether or not Varejao does that will be up to him. They could offer him a 1-year deal and probably be able to pay him more after the 2015-16 season when the salary cap goes up.
So those are the non-free agents this off-season. Now let's take a look at the free agents, and there are a ton of them: (UFA = unrestricted free agent; RFA = restricted free agent meaning the Cavs can match an offer if the player accepts it from a different team)
LeBron James - UFA with a player option. If there's one player who's not going anywhere, it's LeBron James. He is basically setting himself up to get a raise every year because he deserves it. At least for the next few years. He will be a Cavalier for life, which is good news for Cleveland fans. The interesting part will be to see when and to who he passes the torch. I'm guessing Kyrie Irving in about 3 years. LeBron will keep getting raises in and around $22 million starting next year.
Kevin Love -UFA with a player option. This is the wild card of the off-season. I don't think Love is a must-sign, but he's a great get if we can get him and at the right price. Whatever happens with Love will determine how the rest of free agency goes. If he leaves to go to Boston or L.A, then there will be a max player spot available. This could make it easier to re-sign Thompson or trade Haywood to bring in a higher caliber player like Lamarcus Aldridge. If Love doesn't re-sign, I don't think we'll get Aldridge and the chances of landing an actual max player through a sign-and-trade or free agency is slim. If Love stays, the question becomes for how much. Had the Cavs won the finals, Love may not be able to garner a max deal. I'm guessing they'll offer him something slightly less than Kyrie, maybe around $14 million. Other teams are going to offer him more money, and if the question becomes that if they do, will he leave a championship-caliber team to play with a different version of his old Minnesota Timberwolves?
Tristan Thompson - RFA. He was discussed earlier. The Cavs need to do everything possible to re-sign this guy. He's too valuable at the position and is the #1 offensive rebounder. He doesn't demand the ball a lot on offense and is good but can play great on the defensive end. I worry that, since he's a restricted free agent, another team will make him a huge offer that he and his agent feel that he can't pass up and the Cavs will either have to match or let him go. This happened with the Jazz a few years ago. The first year, Paul Millsap was a RFA. Portland made him a huge offer, very front-loaded. The Jazz were put in a bind because they couldn't really afford him, especially with most of the money needing to be paid up front. They also couldn't afford not to sign him so they did. The next year the same thing happened with Wes Matthews, same team. The Jazz this time learned from their mistake and let him go. Turns out he was a really good player, but the Jazz got him for a few years for a small amount of money since he went undrafted. It just depends on if he's the type of guy to take a little less than he could get elsewhere to play with a bonified championship-caliber team. It'd be nice to get him at around $10 million.
Timofey Mozgov - RFA with a team option. SIGNED. Need to re-sign. Varejao isn't quite the rim protector or the athlete that Mozgov is, plus Mozzy is younger. He is what made this team a defensive juggernaut and he's the second-most talented offensive big man behind Kevin Love. With Mozgov and Thompson defending the rim and grabbing boards, it allows LeBron to move to the wing/guard position which is what he prefers. There aren't too many big men like this. He's not the offensive rebounder that Thompson is, but I believe he's our best defensive rebounder. He's also mastered the offensive-rebound-tip-out where, rather than rebounding it, puts himself in a position on offense to slap the ball to a teammate. He needs a raise but hopefully not too much of one. I think he should get around the $8 million range. Lock him up for a few years if possible.
Matthew Dellavedova - RFA. If there's a guy whose stock went up this off-season, it's Delly's. He'll probably get some offers from other teams, but I'd be shocked if he took any of them. I think he's okay with playing for less if he can stay with the Cavaliers. I don't think he can have the kind of output he did in the playoffs and sustain it for a whole season. Maybe he's willing to find out for more money, though. If the Cavs can get him around the $2 million mark, which seems low, they'll be able to keep him. There are a lot of good players playing for less than that out there. Cavs could match up to 3 or 4, but this is still your backup PG you're paying for on most teams.If he's offered and takes a contract for more like $4 or 5 million, then the Cavs probably don't keep him.
Iman Shumpert - RFA. This is the guy that I want the Cavs to re-sign the most, not counting LeBron who isn't even a question at this point. More than Love, more than Thompson and Mozgov. Iman still has some improving to do and he's pretty good where he's at. He's very similar to Kawhi Leonard. He's a great defender, on-ball and help-side. Defensively he has great instincts. He can guard positions 1-3. He's tough. Offensively is where he needs most of his work done but he's got some skills. He's a decent ball-handler, could be a really good one. He's not gonna back up Irving, but if Irving and LeBron are out for whatever reason, he can help out Delly or whichever backup PG we have. You can't have too many ball-handlers on the team. He's a good spot shooter but he can be really good. He's okay at driving but he can take it up a level. I don't think he's going to be great at anything except defense, but he can be really good at almost everything else. He can backup LeBron or play the two. He's the perfect starting two because he doesn't need the ball a lot but can put up points and can play the other team's best player for a majority of the start. LeBron usually guards the best player down the stretch, it helps to have a guy like this guarding him at the beginning. This should be the easiest match if he accepts a qualifying offer somewhere else. I would give him $6-8 million easy.
J.R. Smith - UFA with a player option. J.R Smith could opt into another year of his contract, but until he does, he's considered a free agent. I never thought I'd say this...the Cavs should bring J.R Smith back. If they can do it for $5 million that'd be even better. He'd make just over $6 next year if he opts in. He's a really good shooter, streaky, but he stayed relatively consistent throughout the playoffs. He can create some offense, he's a better defender than people give him credit for. He's got a different attitude playing in Cleveland with LeBron. The King can keep guys like this in check. Having Smith as not only a shooter but someone who can take some pressure off of LeBron, especially in big moments, is something that's worth having. I don't think Smith is willing to go somewhere else to who's not a championship contender, and I don't know if there's a better fit among the championship teams for him. It's in everyone's best interest for him to stay in Cleveland.
James Jones - UFA. Jones was lured by LeBron at the beginning of the season. I think everyone's happy that he came. Jones is a year younger than Mike Miller and two years younger than Shawn Marion. He's 34. I think he has another year or two left in him if he wants it. He signed a 1-year contract for $1.5 million but I think based on what we saw in the playoffs, he gets a little raise. He'd be happy to take $2 million, so I think barring some unprecedented event, he'll be a Cavalier next season. Keep shooting, James!
Mike Miller - UFA with a player option. Miller played a lot less than I thought he was going to. He's a good shooter, but Jones really took his minutes. Maybe he didn't want them. He is 35 years old. He has the option of opting into a $2.85 million contract next season. If he's not going to play as much this upcoming season, it'd be nice to get him at about half of that price, especially at a year older. Miller will decide whether or not to remain in the NBA. If he stays, he'll play in Cleveland with a small chance he goes back to Miami. If he goes, he goes out into the sunset.
Kendrick Perkins - UFA. At only 30 years old, he's got some years ahead of him. He just looks like he's 40 years old. He's the same age as LeBron, though. I don't know about Perkins. He may not like it in Cleveland despite their success. Maybe he'd go back to Boston. Maybe he'll retire since he didn't play a ton this year. He's a question mark, but really it wouldn't be a huge loss if he didn't come back next year. I'd love to see him knocking more people down, though. If he stays, he'll need to take the veteran's minimum of around $500,000. Unless he plans on playing a lot more, he shouldn't get paid a lot more.
Shawn Marion - UFA. This may be the guy to retire as he's the oldest at 36 and has already verbally acknowledged his desire to retire. He hardly played at all this year. His leadership was valuable this year, especially for a young team. This past season he made $1.5 million. If he can take a small pay-cut, the Cavs would probably be willing to keep him around. Most likely Marion calls it a career and gives the Cavs an extra million dollars or two to work with in signing others.
Here's the free agent math:
Irving - $15 million
Harris - 01
Varejao - 10
Haywood - 10*
LeBron - 22
Love - 14
Thompson - 10
Mozgov - 08
Delly - 02
Shumpert - 07
Smith - 06
Jones - 02
Miller - 03
Perkins - 0.5
Marion - 00
_______________
Total $110.5 million
The salary cap for 2014 is $63 million with the luxury tax kicking in once you hit $76 million. Next year it is scheduled to go up slightly, maybe up to $90 million if we're lucky, but in 2016 it's scheduled to go up a lot due in part to the new TV contract the NBA is going to sign. The NBA is revenue-sharing, so when they get more revenue as a league, the salary cap goes up since the players are to get 51% of the revenue from the CBA agreement. I'm guessing it doesn't go much higher than $80 million next year. So either the Cavs are willing to pay the luxury tax, they're not willing to keep everyone, or some combination. If Love really wants out, and the Cavs are willing to part with him, they could do a sign-and-trade which would allow them to get something back that would be a lot less costly and possibly dump Haywood's $10 million in the process. They could realistically cut Haywood as well since his contract is non-guaranteed. If Varejao would be willing to take $5 less and re-structure his contract, then we get closer to $80 than $110. The two biggest money-makers, LeBron and Kyrie, aren't going anywhere so keep $37 million on the books. Oh, and they're worth it.
If players are willing to sign a 1-year contract for less money to keep everyone together and go for another NBA finals appearance, they could probably keep it under the cap assuming they drop Haywood's contract and probably re-negotiate Varejao's. They'll need at least 13 players on the active roster, although they will be able to sign two draft picks this year. Since they're low picks, they'll probably be under $2 for the pair next season.
Let's assume they keep everyone except Haywood. That means they'll have the following positions locked up:
- Post - Varejao, Mozgov, Love, Thompson, Perkins
- Can play Post or Wing - Jones, Miller, James
- Guards/Wings who aren't PG's - Shumpert, Smith, Harris
- Point Guards - Irving, Dellavedova
They are very post-heavy so my guess is that they'll grab a PG and a SF, someone who can replace LeBron once he gets good enough. They'll most likely send at least one to the D-league for a while. With LeBron who likes to handle the ball as much as he does, they should take a SG or SF with their first pick. They have a need at point, but with two very good to elite PG's on the roster, they'd do better to find another wing. Shumpert and Smith will both split time at the two, playing together a little when the Cavs go small. They'll need a legit 3 who can guard some of the longer wings out there.
Here's a look at some of the players they could take in the first round:
Rashad Vaughn - 6'6" SG from UNLV. Raw, has a lot of potential, NBA body but will need some help with fundamentals. Decent mid-range shooter. Would be a great addition to a team where he didn't have to play right away.
Jerian Grant - 6'5" SG from Notre Dame. Can play point as well. Not a great shooter, but has some length and plays well on defense. Great passer and with the pick & roll.
Terry Rozier - 6'2" PG from Louisville. Great scorer, finisher, and defender. Long and athletic. Turns it over and doesn't have great court awareness for a PG.
R.J Hunter - 6'6" SG from Georgia State. A cheaper Mike Dunleavy. He's a great shooter, long, good passer and high basketball I.Q. Not very athletic, struggles against more athletic players.
Here's a look at the guys they could take in the second round:
J.P Takoto - 6'5" SF from UNC. Not a great shooter and doesn't create offense, he's a long, athletic defender with a lot of upside.
Timothe Luwawu - 6'6" SF from France. I don't know a ton about him, I don't know if anyone does. It says he's a long, athletic wing who can shoot but who needs to add strength. He's a typical Euro player. The Cavaliers have taken a lot of chances, a lot of them paying off, with Euro players.
Aaron Harrison - 6'6" SG from Kentucky. He seems to have an "it" factor despite his inconsistency. He's not as great a shooter as his twin, Andrew, but he's a strong, capable defender. He's also a combo guard which may be appealing to the Cavs considering their lack of PG depth. Cleveland would be a good enough situation for him to come in and get in line.
Aside from the draft, there are some intriguing free agents out there the Cavs could take if they don't keep the team intact. It's pretty hard to keep everyone around, even going as far as they did. Here are some players the Cavs could take a look at and possibly make a run for:
- Dorell Wright, SF Portland
- K.J McDaniels, SG/SF Philadelphia
- Gerald Green, SG Phoenix
- Norris Cole, SG New Orleans
- Mike Dunleavy, SF Chicago
There's been some chatter in the NBA world that Dwyane Wade is unhappy with his contract negotiations with the Miami Heat. It looks like Pat Riley wants Wade to take another pay-cut in order to make some room for players like Kevin Durant. Wade doesn't want that. A lot of Cleveland fans are already convinced that Wade is headed to Cleveland. First of all, this is far from a sure thing. Cleveland can't afford to pay Love, Irving, James, and Wade all max contracts. Irving already has one and James is getting one. Love may or may not get one and Wade is looking for one. If Love doesn't stay, there's a long shot that Wade signs for a year just to get LeBron a ring in Cleveland. It wouldn't be long-term and it wouldn't solve Cleveland's needs. It would be a fun story.
A lot is going to depend on who they keep and who they don't. If they're able to re-sign everyone, I think the Cavs need to draft a true PG. It's still a hole. They also need a SF to fill-in for LeBron. He's got to be able to play multiple positions just like James does. Wing players are more the weakness, especially since this year they'll not only have Love, Mozgov, and Thompson potentially back but also Varejao. That's a legitimate front line.
A side note to Cavaliers fans. We need to manage our expectations better. We've never won an NBA finals in the history of our franchise. Until these playoffs, we'd never even won a finals game. We haven't earned the right to say "LeBron, if you don't win with this team, you suck." We can't go calling for people's heads when things don't go our way. There are reasons nobody has wanted to come to Cleveland...some of it has to do with the fans. Let's not bail on our teams when they aren't as successful as we want them to be. It usually happens with the Browns, but it's happened when LeBron has played for us. He doesn't give up at the end of games, and even if he does, he's the reason we're in them in the first place. We need to recognize who butters our bread. Think we'd even be in playoff contention without James? Don't be so quick to kill him on social media. Let's try and actually support our teams instead of holding out hope and judging teams when they don't win it all.
The Cavs have a lot of work to do in the off-season. It's miraculous that they were able to gel and make the finals while bringing in new players all throughout the year. They have a completely new roster than they did last year when only Irving, Dellavedova, Thompson, and Varejao were here. While they don't need a ton of time to make things work, they'll need support and understanding. We have the best player on the planet leading us, so let's just have some faith and get amped up next year for what could be our first championship year ever!
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Wednesday, June 10, 2015
Defending Home
I can't wait to get myself a Dellavedova jersey. Hopefully they spell it right.
I also can't wait to see how many "expert" analysts change their mind on who they think is going to win this series. Most predicted a sweep or the Warriors in 5 once Irving went down. We know now it has to go at least 6 games. Outside of Cavalier fans, no one thought this team had a chance. Most of us are from Cleveland...we don't care about that.
This was such a great game for the Cavs to win. Even more importantly, it would've taken the wind out of the team if they would've lost. I've been waiting for someone to step their game up...Shumpert, Smith, Mozgov, Thompson... I don't think even Cavs fans thought it was going to be Matthew Dellavedova.
When the Cavaliers made the switch to give more minutes to Delly due to the injury of Kyrie Irving and with the absence of Kevin Love in the lineup giving Tristan Thompson more minutes did something to the Cavs: it made them a better defensive team. Obviously Irving and Love are better offensive players, but as long as Delly and Thompson can provide a little bit of offense, then you can look at it as an upgrade. They're providing more than just a little offense.
The Cavs are obviously better with Irving and I'm pretty sure with Love, but they're being forced to play differently with those guys out. It may be just what they needed to do...they're more physical, better defensively, and with their pace of play, all of it has taken the Warriors out of their rhythm.
Here's a little recap of game 3 with some insights as to what can happen moving forward.
This game's tempo was set early from the most unlikely of heroes. James Jones, Mike Miller, LeBron, and Delly all hit the floor tonight to grab loose balls with Delly doing it all over the place. That's what you need to do every game, which is one reason why having Delly in there is a great thing. Honestly, Delly is not a great offensive player. He never will be. If he was playing anywhere else, he may not even get playing time. The only reason he's getting the time he is now is because of Irving's injury. Throughout this whole year, Cleveland was picked to take a PG with their first round pick as a decent backup to Kyrie. I don't think they have to worry about that anymore. Get a wing player who can take some time off of LeBron. And what a pass to LeBron for the alley-oop dunk!
Stephen Curry was bad for game two and most of game 3, but has finally found a rhythm. Delly has been able to take him out of it a little with his physical play. Plus we didn't know how Curry was going to respond to playing at this level. Remember OKC when they went to the finals? They had James Harden. He never showed up for the finals...a big reason they lost. You never know who will step up at the highest level and who just can't seem to do so.
For as much crap as Cavs legitimately gave the refs in game 2, game 3 went the Cavs way. We got some calls and no-calls that we didn't get in game 2. Mozgov did have some nice blocks when he went straight up, but the Warriors weren't as fortunate as they were the previous game. Then there was the review at the end of the game that shouldn't have been reviewed. It should've been Warriors ball, but oh well. How's it feel, Golden State?!
With Curry back in a little bit of a rhythm, it makes game 4 interesting. If they can continue to frustrate him and keep him under his season average, they'll be fine. So far, only one splash brother has gone off per game: Curry, then Thompson, then Curry. It'll be a lot more difficult if both eventually put a game together.
After a game, I like to look at stats. Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green combined to go 2-18 in game 3. That's a little worrisome to me because that means they can do better next game. Of course, the others went 18-39 including 9-20 from 3-point land. That's not easy to duplicate, either. Meanwhile the top Cavs went 21-51 so they have some improvement to do as well. If the Cavs were barely winning these games and shooting high percentages, it would mean that they were playing near-perfect basketball and would have to do that every game to win. They're not, and they're still winning. That's a good sign.
In fact, the Cavs had a great lead. They've outplayed the Warriors for 13 of the 14 periods including overtimes. They only lost the 4th quarter of this game and they were still able to hold on at the end. They were able to withstand a Curry comeback as he found his groove in that last quarter. Also a positive sign.
The Warriors have some hope with the lineup change that Kerr went to at the end. David Lee i a good player and gives them a different rhythm than with Ezeli. They'll look to do that again, although I don't think Lee will be as effective as he was in game 3. That'll be something the Cavs will need to game plan for the next game.
Iman Shumpert has to stay healthy. He brings so much to this team. Amongst all the trades, he was the one I was most excited for. He was an up-and-coming young player with some handles, ability to shoot well and score slightly better, but is a defensive lock-down. Watch him during the game. There was a play where he just stripped a guy to get a steal for someone else. He was the one who made the play at the end of game 2 to win the game. He can cover Curry, Thompson, Barnes, Livingston...basically positions 1-3. That's not easy to do. LeBron can play 1-5 but he's a freak of nature. For anyone else, playing 3 positions on defense is amazing. He needs to stay healthy, so watch it around those Draymond screens.
The Cavs have such a great team when Irving and Love are on the floor. Kyrie can drive and score...he can drive and dish. LeBron gets to slash if Kyrie handles the ball. Love can play down-low. He can pop-out and hit a 3. LeBron can handle the ball and drive. It's limitless on offense when everyone is healthy. That was the one thing the "experts" were saying about the Cavs before the season started...this could be the best offensive team ever, but they were worried about their D. Well, Mozgov and Shumpert changed their defensive mentality, but losing Love and Irving hurts offensively.
Because of these injuries, the Cavaliers have had to change the way that they run their offense. Let's look at what's going on. Varejao is out, Love, and Irving as well. Shumpert is banged up as is LeBron. The Cavs didn't have a ton of depth to begin with, especially with Perkins and Marion not really being able to play. I thought they were really gonna help in the finals since they didn't play a ton during the year or the playoffs. The Cavaliers have a small lineup: LeBron, Shumpert, Thompson, Mozgov, Smith, Delly, and Jones all get major minutes. Miller might get a few. Haywood and Harris aren't coming in unless absolutely necessary. Perkins and Marion will come in just before that. It's basically a 7-man rotation with Miller able to give a few minutes.
There's the small rotation. The Warriors have an 11-man rotation that they can use but normally use 9-10 guys. With Golden State having more guys and normally playing an up-beat tempo, what should the Cavaliers do? Slow the game down. This creates less possessions and less energy exerted then if they were running up and down the floor. A lot of free throws help to give short breaks as well. A lot of slack is being hurled at LeBron for playing iso-ball, and I admit I don't love it. But this is the most effective way to play right now since it gives extra breathers, slows the game down by causing there to be less possessions, and when he drives and gets to the free throw line, it stops the game again giving the Cavaliers a mini-break. It also creates less shots so not as much offense for the Warriors who are used to putting up a ton of points. Psychologically when you don't score as much as you're used to, it can have an effect on you.
Not only does this help with the lack of depth, but it also creates an interesting offensive strategy. Thompson is the best offensive rebounder in the league, period. Mozgov doesn't get a ton of offensive rebounds, but he is a master at the offensive tip back to a guard. So with LeBron isolating, he either drives and gets to the bucket (and potentially the foul line) or he draws a double-team and kicks it out to one of the many great Cavalier shooters this series (Smith, Shumpert, Delly is okay, Jones has been great, Miller is available) who put it up. Either the Cavs hit the 3 or something else happens. Thompson and Mozgov are really good at getting the rebound or tip-out. They haven't gotten a ton this series because Green and Bogut are struggling to box them out. So what's happening? Green in particular, but both of them are fouling Thompson and Mozgov. They're getting in foul trouble early. Fouling Mozgov is a good thing, too, because he's a good free throw shooter. When Green and/or Bogut has to exit earlier than expected, it throws off their rhythm with the new lineup.
Any coach can tell you, shooting teams like to stay in rhythm. They don't like change. Their goal is consistency, and when they get thrown off, it can affect them. That's one of the reasons I think that Curry hasn't been hitting as many shots as he's used to. Even shots in the paint he's missing. Delly is playing him really well, but the Cavs offense is playing in such a way that it forces Green and Bogut to foul or give up an easy offensive put-back. It forces them to the bench which changes Golden State's offensive options.
This series is shaping up to be a really good one. Close games, overtimes...it'll be fun to watch. If anybody thought the Cavs were out of this from game 1, they're certainly rethinking that stance now.
14 games down. 2 to go.
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Down But Not Out
When the Browns hired Rob Chudzinski from Carolina, I didn't know what to make of it. It was okay I guess. I didn't know much about him. The Browns got to the game late and all of the guys who would've been home runs, or even solid doubles or triples, were taken. With Chud, though, came Ray Horton as defensive coordinator and Norv Turner as offensive coordinator. Turn out these were the better hires.
I remember when I got off the Chud train. There was an interview, and in the interview Chud was asked about halftime adjustments. His teams performed much worse in the second half than in the first. He said that he didn't believe in adjustments. You stick to the plan with your guys and go.
I was done. Sorry, but the great coaches are all great because of halftime adjustments. Urban Meyer is a great example, probably the best college football adjustment-maker alive right now. Ohio State has a leadership program that I wear on my arm: "E + R = O." This stands for "event plus response equals outcome." With this way of thinking, it's not so much what happens to you that determines your success but your response to that event. I really love that philosophy. Oh, and guys like Phil Jackson and Greg Popovich also make adjustments. Good company to be in.
For all my non-Browns fan who read this, sorry about the little detour. My point is that adjustments need to be made. In the NBA playoffs, and in basketball in general, adjustments are made all the time. Halftime, end of quarters, middle of games, to stop the other team's momentum, and then from game to game. I don't know what kind of adjustments Blatt is going to make. He had a good game plan but it seemed to be halted towards the end of the game. This is a chance for him to prove his "offensive genius" actually exists.
There are a lot of thing to pull out of this game, Blatt's need to make adjustments are just one of them. Here are some other things to think about as the Cavaliers/Warriors series goes on:
How the Cavs will adjust, especially due to the loss of Kyrie Irving
The biggest and most talked about adjustment will be how the Cavs handle replacing Kyrie Irving. Obviously Dellevedova will get the start and the majority of his minutes, but replacing an All-Star is about more than just minutes. His offensive production and underrated defense will need to be accounted for as well. Delly isn't as quick, and he had trouble staying with Curry in game 1. He also didn't get to play much because of Blatt's mishandling of Irving's minutes. I get it; he was available and you want to play your best players, especially in overtime. No way Irving should've played 43 minutes (he would've played more had he not gotten injured) and Delly only 9. Expect Delly to get more minutes.
If Delly can figure out how to guard Curry better, because Delly is a great defender but struggles against quicker guys, then that will really make a difference. He will give it his all, that's for sure. He can be more physical with Curry than Irving (and maybe inadvertently take him out maybe?) which may not only frustrate Curry but wear him down and affect his shot, maybe. Delly did well against Teague but not so well against Rose.
Offensive production and ball-handling will need to be addressed. Delly, LeBron, and Shumpert will all probably run point throughout the game. It's better if LeBron doesn't have to expend energy bringing the ball up, though. If he does, it will really affect their transition offense as LeBron is their best guy to get out and finish at the rim. Irving will be sorely missed, and the Cavaliers aren't better without him.
Role Players Need to Step Up
With Varejao, Love, and now Irving out, they'll need to get more production out of their other players. The media doesn't think this can happen. I think it can but it's going to be tough. I never bought into the whole 'the Cavs have finals experience and the Warriors don't have any.' No, LeBron, James Jones, and Mike Miller (who rarely plays now) has finals experience, not the Cavs. Irving, Thompson, and Love never made the playoffs. Mozgov is learning how to be a starter. Smith and Shumpert have playoff experience but not finals experience, and that playoff experience was with the Knicks. Delly is not only new to the playoffs, he's new to the league. The Cavaliers don't have much experience, just LeBron.
This was evident in watching game 1. Iman Shumpert had his talent stolen from the aliens in space jam. James Jones only got off 1 shot which he missed. JR Smith had 9 points but went 3-13 to do it. Those were the only guys off the bench for Cleveland along with Delly (Shumpert started). I don't know why. Their bench got outscored 34-9. Granted, Speights for Golden State had 8 points and played abnormally well. For Cleveland to win this series, they can't get outplayed by that much by Golden State's bench.
It's time for Marion and Miller to make their appearances. Perkins may get some time, too, if nothing else to push some people around. Jones, Miller, and Smith need to be able to hit some 3's. Jones will get some more playing time also.
The four guys I think this team will really depend on to step up are JR Smith, Iman Shumpert, Tristan Thompson, and Timofey Mozgov. Thompson will need to work the boards and grab some lobs. He did a good job of this in the first half but they collapsed the lane a bit in the second which prevented him from grabbing boards like he usually does. Mozgov will need to play big around the rim and continue to cut to the basket for easy dunks and layups. He also needs to make those and not go out of his comfort zone. That layup attempt in the fourth attempt trying to channel his inner Jordan needs to stop. Both will need to control the boards and the rim defensively.
This is a strategy the Cavaliers should employ, at least for stretches in the game. Golden State had a problem with Memphis because Memphis has a big frontcourt in Gasol and Randolph. They used that advantage to take a 2-1 series lead. Thompson isn't as polished offensively as either of those guys, but they can still get involved offensively, especially through rebounds. Thompson did such a good job against Pau Gasol, Taj Gibson, and Joakim Noah in the Chicago series. These are three of the better frontcourt players in the NBA. He needs to play big against a smaller Warrior team.
They've seemed to figure Smith out. His last shot got blocked because everyone in the arena knew what he was going to do. Drive, pull back his dribble, step back with a little jump and throw it up. He needs to be a little more aggressive in driving to the basket for teams to respect his shot. Same thing with Shumpert, who is a more natural slasher. If Shumpert and Smith can take not only some of the scoring load but also the ball-handling and half-court-directing from LeBron, it'll free him up to cut as well. The Cavs looked too stagnant at times. They need to not only set pick and rolls, but move around when they don't have the ball. Mozgov should be the only guy timing his baseline rolls and slashes to the middle. Ideally, LeBron has the ball, Thompson sets the screen, Smith and Shumpert circle around the three-point line, Mozgov cut at the last second. LeBron will either take it in the paint or find the right guy who's open. Next play, same thing but for Shumpert, then Smith. The Cavs can play pick-n-roll basketball, just not so much iso-ball from James.
LeBron's Final Shot
A lot of criticism has been heaped on LeBron's final shot. Question to those who question: did you also question this shot? It was the same exact shot over the same exact player in a very similar moment. It's not so much that it was a bad shot, it just didn't have the same result. Because he could've gotten a better shot, and for the record he could have, but then took the one he did and missed the way he did, people say it was a bad shot. Not only that, because it's LeBron, there are people out there (a lot of Cavs fans even) who blame him for losing the game.
You've got to be kidding me. James has 44 points, 8 boards, and 6 assists and he lost the game? Just because Jordan missed a game-winning shot doesn't mean he lost them the game. Derrick Rose missing his last 11 shots in a close game is a reason someone loses a game. If it wasn't for James, the Cavaliers wouldn't have been in the game to even have a potential game-winning shot. I had that feeling in the last game against Boston. Yes, he made a couple mistakes at the end of the game, but he was the reason we were in the position that we were. If you win with LeBron, you also lose with him. He gives you the best chance to win at any time in any game, period. For four years, Cavs fans (including myself) didn't want to admit that but it was true.
Again, I think he could've taken a better shot. I would set up a pick-n-roll play against a bigger guy like Bogut or Green and have LeBron take it to the basket. Mike Greenburg had a great point this morning: when you let LeBron iso and not drive, you take away his best attribute: his ability to make the perfect play. Whether that is him shooting it or a kick-out to an open player, it's what LeBron does better than anybody. Blatt needs to remind him of that.
Get Big
As stated before, the Cavaliers are down a guard in which they were lacking depth in already. Delly, Shumpert, Smith, and Joe Harris (good luck seeing him in this series) are your guards. Shumpert is more of a small forward, but they have a few of those in LeBron, Jones, Marion, and Miller. Since they don't have a ton of guards, I say the Cavs just play to their strength: strength. They have Thompson and Mozgov on the front line but LeBron, Jones, Perkins (not an offensive threat but a big bruiser), and Haywood to play big. That will create some mismatches but as long as Shumpert, LeBron, Delly, Smith, or Marion are out there, they can cover positions 1-3 on Golden State. Shumpert, Delly, and LeBron will spend a lot of time on Curry while Smith, LeBron, and Jones will take shots at Thompson (Klay). If Thompson (Tristan) can play Green well, that takes care of their three most dangerous players. With Cleveland's star PG out, let's play big and get some easy buckets in the paint. Wearing Golden State out physically, especially their shooters, will also be really helpful.
LeBron Needs More Assists Than Points
The Warriors game plan was laid out quite simply: LeBron doesn't get more than 10 assists and they win the game. If he does, that means other players are hitting shots, getting into rhythms, and picking up the load for him. If LeBron scores that many points on that many shots every game after this, the Cavs will lose every game. If he gets people involved and distributes, that unity will become infectious and players will start to play up to their potential. If the Cavs are to win this series, it's going to take everyone contributing at a high level, not just LeBron showing how much he can score.
Win the 3-Point Game
This is easier said than done against Golden State, but they held them to 37% for the game including 33% by the splash brothers. The problem is that they only shot 29% themselves. LeBron went 25% shooting 2-8 as did Kyrie. Smith was 3-10 and Jones went 0-1. Maybe we should let Shumpert shoot more, who went 2-4. Delly didn't take a shot. Miller can help with that as well if he plays.
Let's not let Steph Curry shoot it from the corner. He's shooting better from the corner 3 than most NBA players are from the free throw line. With Mozgov and Thompson at the rim, let's take a chance with him shooting a jumper in the lane than one of his corner 3's. The game really has changed.
Take Away the Positives
There were some positives to take away from this game amongst all the negatives. I don't think they outweigh the negatives, but they're things to build on. First of all, on the road, Cleveland had two chances to win the game. We came up just short, but having ourselves in that situation, especially considering how poorly we played in the 4th quarter, is a good thing.
Another thing has already been mentioned: the splash brothers were held to lower production than their averages. So was Draymond Green. I was worried about the match-up with Green and Thompson, but Tristan played him well.
I like to look at the bad things we my team did as an opportunity to improve. So while they were negatives during the game, they're positives going forward. For example, if you lose by 8 points but shoot 20% from the field. That's a great thing because if you can manage to shoot a decent percentage like 30%, that means if you shoot 90 shots like both teams did, you'll make about 9 more shots or 18 more points. Free throws were about even, but the Cavs shot 68% compared to Golden State's 91%. If the Cavs had made just a couple more free throws or if Golden State misses a couple, Cleveland probably gets out of there with a win.
There are a lot of things that need to bounce Cleveland's way, so I don't think they're necessarily out of it. The whole world will jump back on board if the Cavs win game 2 and show they can compete. If they don't win on Sunday, I think Golden State will take it in 5 or 6. Don't lose hope, Cavs fans! You always have a chance when you have the best player in the world.
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Sunday, May 24, 2015
2015 NBA Finals Preview: Cavaliers versus Warriors
We're gonna have a new NBA champion this year. There are two new faces....no Spurs, no Heat...I guess those have been the main two. The Mavericks and Thunder had appearances. The Mavericks are entering into rebuild-mode while the Thunder are concentrating on keeping their two stars in OKC next year. We may finally have been right in thinking the Spurs are over the hill, although we'll have to wait and see next year. Not only are the Cavs and Warriors new players in town, but the Rockets and Hawks haven't tasted much post-season success lately, either. Clippers and Grizzlies could have made it here if some bounces go their way. Even the Bulls, who post-Jordan have been underwhelming to say the least, had a window to make it this year. Who knows what will happen this off-season. There's a good chance that both their coach and Derrick Rose are somewhere else next year.
So how did these two new teams make it? Easy: LeBron and Curry. Both are very talented players. Both lead their teams well. They do things the right way, they're the right kind of stars. The NBA as everybody knows is a star-driven league. The thing is you need the right kind of star to see your team have success. Carmelo Anthony? Attitude, lacks leadership, not a great locker room guy. Derrick Rose? Injury-prone, not strong mentally, fades down the stretch. DeMarcus Cousins? Immaturity, off-the-court issues, apathetic. There are lots of good examples of the right kind of star: LeBron and Curry are two, Tim Duncan, Kevin Durant.
But while both are superstars and great individual players, they still need some support behind them. I wanted to break down both teams a little bit so we're prepared for the match-up when it inevitably starts on June 4.
Here Golden State Warriors
G Stephen Curry
G Klay Thompson
SF Harrison Barnes
PF Draymond Green
C Andrew Bogut
Off the bench:
SF Andre Iguodala
PF David Lee
PG Shaun Livingston
SG Leandro Barbosa
C Festus Ezeli
Granted, these positions are just more formality than anything. Barbosa can run point, Livingston can, Thompson can. They switch up their lineups and can go big, small, or really small.
Curry is amazing. The more the playoffs go on, the bigger the moment it seems, the better he gets. He's a top-notch shooter. He may go down as the best shooter of all time. I don't know how many guys on the planet, even in this planet's history, have ever made 77 three-pointers in a row. Are you kidding me?! That's a great shot. He'll have some more against the Cavs in the finals, too. There's just no stopping a shooter like that. One thing that he's proven in this Houston series is that he's more than a shooter though. He can handle the ball, he's an above-average passer, creates for himself and others, and is an underrated mover without the ball. He's a handful.
Thompson hasn't shown up much in this Houston series yet. He had a little bit of a breakout in game 3, but I don't really count that game since the Rockets really just gave up. He can shoot, not as well as Curry, but when he's hitting, he can do it a lot. He can penetrate and is a better defender than Curry. He's a bigger body who will match up with LeBron for stretches of the game. Look for him to take a lot of shots, especially if he's not taking them early, with the second group on the floor.
Harrison Barnes seems to show up when he's needed. He's probably the least valuable starter, but within their team dichotomy, he adds a lot of value. He's a complete player. He runs, he can rebound, he can shoot, he can penetrate, he can play defense. He doesn't do anything extremely well but he does just about everything fairly well. He'll play LeBron a lot as well.
Green is one of the best defenders and easily could've won defensive player of the year. He can probably play positions 2-5. He's not a big guy, but he's big enough. He is frustrating Dwight Howard, a much bigger and stronger player. He can shoot and he can pass. He's going to be dangerous this series. He's a guy who's capable of keeping Thompson off the offensive boards. If he does that well enough, the Cavaliers will be missing a nice piece of their game.
I don't think Dwight Howard is great, but he is getting outplayed by Andrew Bogut. I don't think Bogut great, either. He's a decent rim-protector and has a nice jumper. He's more athletic than given credit for and is also a good passer. I think he and Mozgov will end up as a wash against each other. I'm interested to see how the Cavs use Mozgov. If he pops out of the lane like he's done the past couple of games against the Hawks and Bogut follows him out, it'll open up the lane for LeBron, Thompson, and Kyrie once he comes back. If he stays, Mozgov may have some good numbers in the series.
Those are your starters for Golden State, or at least the ones who'll have the most minutes. When Iguodala and David Lee came over from their respective teams, they were the best players on each. Iguodala is athletic and a good defender who will also see some LeBron time. Lee seems in a funk to me, at least offensively. He's a good rebounder and serves as a great backup. He would be an okay to decent starter, but behind Green, he's a great guy to have come off the bench. Livingston oddly enough used to be a Cavalier. I thought he was a great pickup, but every game I saw him, he couldn't handle the ball. Apparently he's learned how to do that in Oakland. He's a good energy guy who can find his own shot and is a good rebounder for his size. He may match up with LeBron but will probably have some time on Kyrie. That means Kyrie is going up against a taller, longer defender who has some make-up speed if Irving gets by him. Barbosa and Ezeli are both decent, but Barbosa may not get as much time as he's used to. He's pretty old now. Ezeli is an athletic big who will have more of an impact on the defensive end.
There are your Golden State Warriors. Now, here are your Cleveland Cavaliers:
PG Kyrie Irving
SG Iman Shumpert
SF LeBron James
PF Tristan Thompson
C Timofey Mozgov
On the bench:
SG J.R Smith
PG Matthew Dellavedova
PF James Jones
PF Mike Miller
SF Shawn Marion
C Kendrick Perkins
C Brendan Haywood
Kyrie Irving's health will prove to be a wild card in this series. He can create a lot of problems for Golden State. With Dellavedova on the court, you don't need a great defender on him. Irving requires that. Irving isn't as good on defense as Matthew, but he also brings a better 3-point shot and passing. His penetration and finishing at the rim are what make him one of the best PG's in the league. He'd be fun to watch match up against Curry.
Shumpert is a defensive specialist but also has some offensive tools. He's turned into a good spot-up shooter. With LeBron drawing double-teams, Shumpert is often the benefactor. He's shot very well in the Atlanta series. He may be matched up on Curry when Curry hits a couple shots. He's also a good match for Thompson and could take him out of the game similarly to what he did with Korver when he was healthy.
LeBron is the greatest player on the planet. He always has been since he took the torch from Kobe. As a Miami Heat player, no Cavalier fan wanted to admit it but we knew it was true. It wouldn't have hurt as much as it did when he left if he wasn't that great. He's learned what it takes to win a championship and how to be a better leader. He's got a great supporting cast around him. I think the biggest factor that will tip the favor in this series is who does a better job on the other team's superstar. With different looks on LeBron from Golden State, he'll have to constantly adjust his offensive game to what they're doing defensively. He can do it, he did it in Miami. We'll have to see if he can do it again with this Cleveland team.
With Kevin Love out and Thompson starting, the Cavaliers not only got better defensively, but I think they got better on the boards as well. Love is a good rebounder, but not like Thompson. He's also not the defender. Thompson doesn't have quite the jump shot, but the Cavs have enough shooters to make up for it. What they don't have is another Thompson grabbing offensive boards the way he can. Green will be a tough match-up for him though.
Mozgov was such a great pickup. He really got Cleveland to a great place defensively. He is their rim protector and will do a better job than Dwight Howard is doing. He's got a good mid-range jumpshot, so basically he's trading places with Love on offense. He doesn't grab offensive rebounds, but he is great at tipping the ball out to a player. He runs the floor and is an above-average slasher for a center. If Bogut gets into foul trouble like he has been against Houston, look for Mozgov to take advantage of whoever they put on him. If they put Green on him, he won't do much offensively, but Thompson will. Noah, Gibson, and Gasol struggled to contain both Thompson and Mozgov.
The bench is where it could get interesting. JR Smith is a legitimate starter, but to get him more shots, he comes off the bench while Shumpert starts. He'll most likely be on the floor at the end of the game, though, when it counts. He's proven he can hit some big shots. We'll need all the 3-point shooters we can get to match up against Curry and Thompson. Dellevadova will hit some shots as well and is a better defender. What we've learned over the Chicago and Atlanta series is that Matt is a capable backup. The Cavs don't have to panic while they sit Kyrie, possibly for games at a time now.
James Jones and Mike Miller are basically the same player only Jones is a little more refined. Both are great 3-point shooters. If they go small with Jones at the 4, Green may be dragged out of the paint. The Warriors do go small with Green at the 5 but Jones will be able to shoot over them. Miller is pretty much at full strength since he's barely played in these playoffs. He was a big reason the Heat won their first title in the finals. Shawn Marion has also been held back. He has enough left in the tank to be an above-average defender and a good spot-up shooter. He's a little bit of an unknown since he is old and hasn't played much this year, but I think the Cavs did that on purpose.
Perkins and Haywood will hopefully not have to be used much, either. Golden State isn't a big team, so unless Thompson and Mozgov both get into foul trouble, we probably won't see much of them. Perkins will be able to guard Bogut well while Haywood is a more athletic center, probably on Green-duty if he sees the court. Neither are great offensive options.
There you have it. Cavs vs.Warriors. It's a little early, but does anyone honestly believe either the Rockets or Hawks will come back? I didn't think so. I'll take the Cavaliers in 7 but it could go either way. Go Cleveland!!!
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Sunday, May 3, 2015
Browns 2015 Draft Recap
The NFL draft has come and gone. Hard to believe it really: kind of anti-climactic. The Browns entered the draft with ten picks and ended up with twelve different ones after a couple trades, the highest ever for in franchise history. Here were the original draft picks heading into draft day:
- Round 1: pick 12 overall 12
- Round 1: pick 19 overall 19 (from Buffalo)
- Round 2: pick 11 overall 43
- Round 3: pick 13 overall 77
- Round 4: pick 12 overall 111
- Round 4: pick 16 overall 115 (from Buffalo)
- Round 5: pick 11 overall 147
- Round 6: pick 13 overall 189
- Round 6: pick 26 overall 202 (from Baltimore)
- Round 7: pick 12 overall 229
The Browns pulled off three trades:
Trade with Houston Texans
Cleveland received Texans 2nd round pick (#51), 4th round pick (#116), 6th round pick (#195)
Houston received 2nd round pick (#43), 7th round pick (#229)
Trade with New England Patriots
Cleveland received 3rd round pick (#96), 7th round pick (#219)
New England received 4th round pick (#111), 5th round pick (#147), 6th round pick (#202)
Trade with Arizona Cardinals
Cleveland received 4th round pick (#123), 6th round pick (#198), 7th round pick (#241)
Arizona received 4th round pick (#116)
Ray Farmer has shown that he is willing to make some moves on draft day. He's not quite Kevin Costner, but this year he moved back some spots and gained a draft pick and then moved up a few spots giving up the extra draft pick. I think he actually did a good job, moving from two picks on day two to three picks. Here are the 2015 draft selections by the Cleveland Browns:
- Round 1 (pick 12, overall 12): Danny Shelton, DT Washington
- Round 1 (pick 19, overall 19): Cameron Erving, OL Florida State
- Round 2 (pick 19, overall 51): Nate Orchard, DE Utah
- Round 3 (pick 13, overall 77): Duke Johnson, RB Miami
- Round 3 (pick 32, overall 96): Xavier Cooper, DT Washington State
- Round 4 (pick 16, overall 115): Ibraheim Campbell, SS Northwestern
- Round 4 (pick 24, overall 123): Vince Mayle, WR Washington State
- Round 6 (pick 13, overall 189): Charles Gaines, CB Louisville
- Round 6 (pick 19, overall 195): Malcolm Johnson, TE Mississippi State
- Round 6 (pick 22, overall 198): Randall Telfer, TE USC
- Round 7 (pick 2, overall 219): Hayes Pullard, ILB USC
- Round 7 (pick 24, overall 241): Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB Oregon
Going into the draft, their five biggest needs (in order) were QB, OLB, D-line, O-line, and WR. After the draft concluded, they had addressed four of them (Nate Orchard projects to be an OLB or DE). A lot of people (including some so-called experts) felt WR was the Browns real position of need despite the off-season acquisitions of Brian Hartline and Dwayne Bowe. They are paired with Andrew Hawkins, Taylor Gabriel, and Travis Benjamin. Josh Gordon may also be coming back after his suspension in 2016.
Here is a little bit about each of the draftees for the Cleveland Browns, along with grades for each pick. Note: I don't know how other people grade each of their picks, but my grade reflect more of the value of each pick and not the grading of each individual player. For example, when Tim Tebow got drafted, his selection would have gotten an 'A' grade if he was taken in the 7th round but instead got an 'F' grade for where he was taken in the 1st round. Same player, different values.
Round 1 (pick 12, overall 12): Danny Shelton, DT Washington
Most people had Danny Shelton pegged going to the Browns at the 12 spot. He's got a huge frame at 6'2" and 339 lbs. He's also Samoan which means he naturally has a big frame as opposed to a lot of guys who put on weight to play a position. The Browns play a 3-4 defense and already have a great DT in the middle by the name of Phil Taylor who is 6'3" and 335 lbs. The most quoted statistic by Browns fans who love all the DT picks for this draft is that the Browns finished 32nd in run defense. This is true, but not because they didn't have talent there; they just had too many injuries to their D-line that their 3rd stringer ended up playing a lot of it. I love the Shelton pick; it gives us a promising young player who's big and can stop the run. That is a big deal in the AFC North. It also gives us a really good front line with Taylor in nickel and dime packages allowing the Browns to put more guys in the secondary. Along with Taylor and Shelton, Cleveland has free agent Randy Starks, Ishmaa'ily Kitchen, Calvin Barnett, and Desmond Bryant in the middle. Grade: A-
Round 1 (pick 19, overall 19): Cameron Erving, OL Florida State
With the second pick of the first round, Cleveland decided to grab an offensive lineman in Cameron Erving from Florida State. The 313-pounder isn't just any offensive lineman: he can play any position. He started off at guard and quickly moved to tackle. He then took over the center position. He may not be the best offensive lineman in the draft, but he's easily the most versatile. He can play any position, including center. Browns fans will remember what happened to the O-line last season after pro bowl center Alex Mack went out: they sucked. Their run game almost stopped immediately. Oh, and his inspiration for playing line? Joe Thomas, left tackle. Erving is going to be a great addition and serve as not only a starter at either right guard or tackle, but is a proven center who can backup Alex Mack if another injury hits. Grade: A
Round 2 (pick 19, overall 51): Nate Orchard, DE Utah
The second round for the Browns started off with the Houston Texans trading into their spot to grab ILB Benardick McKinney. This changed the Browns 7th round pick to a 6th rounder and gave us an additional 4th rounder. I suspect that from the remarks Nate Orchard made to KSL after getting drafted by the Browns, both sides really wanted it to work out. Initially, I thought the Browns had a couple of better options at this spot, namely Randy Gregory and Maxx Williams. Nate Orchard is a really good player and provides some versatility on defense by being able to play both defensive end or outside linebacker. Living in Utah, I've gotten to hear a lot about him. With the departures of Ahtyba Rubin (DE) and Jabaal Sheard (OLB), both spots were a need for the Browns. In one player they get either position. Orchard is also a mature, disciplined guy: something the Browns need more of. If he doesn't end up starting by the end of the season in either one of those positions, he'll get major playing time. Grade: B+
Round 3 (pick 13, overall 77): Duke Johnson, RB Miami
The third round selections don't make sense to me at all. With the first selection of the 3rd round, the Browns took a running back out of Miami in Duke Johnson. He's more of a speed runner and not a bruiser. As it currently stands, the Browns have four running backs on their roster: Terrance West, Isaiah Crowell, Shaun Draughn, and Glenn Winston. West and Crowell are the featured backs who both got a lot of playing time last season when Ben Tate went down with injury. I'm not against taking a running back in the draft, especially with the number of picks we had. But I don't like where this running back was taken. I think a better choice would have been Bryce Petty, a wide receiver, or another linebacker. This turns the Browns into an offense with a three-running back system. While all are rookies or second-year players, will they all be satisfied with the number of carries they get? Maybe if Cleveland only decides to throw it 10-20 times a game and run it the rest of the time. Johnson lacks size and blocking technique. Good player, not a great spot to take a running back. That's what the grade should reflect. Grade: C+
Round 3 (pick 32, overall 96): Xavier Cooper, DT Washington State
The second selection in the third round makes even less sense to me: Xavier Cooper, defensive tackle out of Washington State. As discussed earlier, at defensive tackle, we have one of the premier players in Phil Taylor. We just took his in-state rival and superior Danny Shelton in the first round, arguably the best DT in the draft. We got Randy Starks in free agency. Ishmaa'ily Kitchen played major minutes last year and is a good backup despite the fact he'll probably be bumped to third or fourth string again this season. Desmond Bryant, while able to play defensive end, is also a great option at defensive tackle. While we can still re-sign him, all of this probably means we don't keep Sione Fua, also a DT. So not only do we have some depth at the position, the Browns moved up to get this guy giving up a 5th-round draft pick. All this for a guy who could be a 4th or 5th string player. Grade: D+
Round 4 (pick 16, overall 115): Ibraheim Campbell, SS Northwestern
Especially with Tashaun Gipson's contract still not being signed, getting Campbell was a nice pickup. Cleveland rebounded from a bad day two with a very nice first addition. While Campbell won't burn you with speed and is a bit undersized, what he lacks in talent he makes up for in intelligence. He has some things to work on that are correctable, like angles, but he can tackle and has good instinct. He played an important role in Northwestern's secondary as a four-year starter. Great senior bowl performance. Grade: B+
Round 4 (pick 24, overall 123): Vince Mayle, WR Washington State
Most Browns fans finally got their wish when Cleveland took a receiver to finish out the 4th round. Mayle is a taller receiver at 6'2" and has had plenty of reps being at WSU. He doesn't stand out as much as some of the earlier receivers taken like Funchess or Coates. The really good receivers stopped by taken by the end of the third round. However, Mayle possesses some skills and has a good body type to develop into a #2 or possibly a #1 receiver, though it is likely he won't see the field a ton this season. But if players like Bowe and Benjamin, both of which have an injury history, end up getting sidelined, look for Mayle to come in and have some footballs thrown his way. I didn't think the Browns needed a top-tier receiver in this draft, so taking one now before they missed the 5th round having no picks was a good idea. Grade: B-
Round 6 (pick 13, overall 189): Charles Gaines, CB Louisville
This pick is an example of a Rex Ryan understudy: can't have too many CB's. Pettine is a defensive-minded head coach and when good value is to be had on this side of the ball, he is showing that he'll take it. Picked to go somewhere in the 5th round, the Browns were able to grab him in the middle of the 6th. Gaines is a very good cornerback and shows that he can stay with receivers, something Pettine looks for in his CB's. He expects them to be able to play man coverage so he can send an extra rusher or two. Gaines possesses the skills but not the strength. He doesn't tackle extremely well and doesn't bump at the line of scrimmage. Cleveland already has Joe Haden , a top three CB in the NFL. Last year, the Browns picked up Pierre Desir, Justin Gilbert, and K'Waun Williams. Williams and Desir have shown some good things, but Gilbert had high expectations being taken not only early in the first round but instead of wide receiver Sammy Watkins who the Browns later found out needed due to Josh Gordon's suspension. If Gaines can put on some weight (and by weight, I mean muscle) and stay injury-free, he may see the field in some nickel and dime packages as well as special teams. Good value, not necessarily a need, but with the coach we have, it's understandable. Grade: B
Round 6 (pick 19, overall 195): Malcolm Johnson, TE Mississippi State
Johnson is the first tight end of two chosen and will have the best chance at making an impact his rookie year. Having split time at FB and TE, he possesses good blocking and catching skills. Not extremely fast, but has good wheels. He may see more time at fullback if the Browns choose to use one in light of the departure of undersized Chris Ogbonnaya. With three tight ends on the current roster, two blocking and one receiving in Housler, Johnson will most likely be a third or fourth string backup at TE but a starter at FB. Taking a TE/FB this late in the sixth round doesn't provide much risk. It's a position that the Browns can use more of. They could have taken a TE or FB sooner in the draft as there were a dozen players rated higher, maybe with the last pick of the third round for maybe Walford or Heuerman, but grabbing a second pass-catching TE isn't a bad idea. Grade: C
Round 6 (pick 22, overall 198): Randall Telfer, TE USC
This pick will remain to be seen if it's a good one or not. Telfer has had an injury-ridden past but will have the next year to get healthy, get stronger, and learn proper techniques. This is another pass-catching TE but a little more undersized than Malcolm Johnson. It seems as if the Browns were high on both these players and couldn't decide who they wanted. Telfer seems to have more upside but more risk. None of that potential can be realized, though, if he can't stay on the field. I don't think he gets a lot of playing time this year, but for a late 6th round pick, it's not a horrible value. Grade: C+
Round 7 (pick 2, overall 219): Hayes Pullard, ILB USC
With Craig Robertson coming back and Karlos Dansby anchoring the ILB spot, this isn't a position of need. Robertson played well last year after struggling the last few. Chris Kirksey was taken last year as a mid-round pick to provide some depth as well. Pullard wrote an open letter to GM's and coaches before the draft informing them that he will be a great player basically. I don't know...I have my doubts about him. He was slotted to go around the 7th round, so the Browns got him at about the value everyone thought he'd get. He may be a special teams player for a while. I'm hoping the Browns grab Curtis Grant, a free agent now from Ohio State. If Pullard can live up to his own expectations, Robertson is anything but written in stone at the starting ILB position. Somehow I don't see Pullard taking it though. Grade: C
Round 7 (pick 24, overall 241): Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB Oregon
This is the player that got the Browns noticed for drafting fairly well this year. Ekpre-Olomu dropped in the draft after some considered him to be as high as a 1st round talent, although most confer that he's at least a 3rd or 4th. I love picking injured or problematic players in the 7th round because there's a ton of potential upside and, if it doesn't pan out, it only costs a 7th round pick which the Browns had two of this year. His knee injury kept him out of the national championship game but it wouldn't have mattered as my Buckeyes dominated the Ducks. Ekpre-Olomu will miss everything up until the season starts because of his surgery but will probably get a chance during the year to show what he's got. Most likely he'll develop more rapidly at the end of this season in time for next season. The Browns are still hoping for that lock-down corner across from Joe Haden, so if this guy shows he can do it, he'll get a spot. Grade: A-
Overall, I'd give the Browns draft a solid B+. We got a lot of guys who could potentially fill some holes. It started off well and then sort of went downhill but picked up towards the end. It was the exact opposite of last year. In last season's draft, we passed on a star receiver in wide receiver Sammy Watkins for cornerback Justin Gilbert. In light of all the Josh Gordon drama, this wasn't a great choice. And then we drafted the only player in the past few years who most people knew we should stay away from in Johnny Manziel.
Farmer has shown in two drafts now that he's not afraid to move around. He was able to get more picks this year than he started with. In the future, I'd like to see if he's able to get less picks than he starts with but of higher quality. I still maintain that Ray Farmer is a good general manager and Mike Pettine a good coach. Farmer has shown he's really good in free agency. It's tough to get good players to Cleveland when it still finishes last in the division. Haslam is a great owner and actually cares about the team. The Browns are slowly coming along. It's hard to do without a franchise QB and they're still making this team better. Once we get our franchise QB, we'll be a really good team, good enough to take over the division which is arguably the best division in the NFL. Until then, I don't think we can win a super bowl. But there's plenty to do before getting a shot at that.
Monday, April 27, 2015
A Very Cavalier Injury
News has come out over the past day about Kevin Love's injury. It turns out he will most likely miss the entire series with the Bulls (or the Bucks, the way that they're playing) and possibly the rest of the playoffs. Even if he does come back, there are questions about how effective he'll be. If you thought he was merely a jump shooter before, wait until you see him at less than 100%.
A lot of analysts are now switching their pick from the Cavs to the Bulls as the eastern conference representative. The winner of this game will probably go to the NBA Finals. The Cavs not only lose Love for at least a few games, but they'll be without J.R Smith for two. Kendrick Perkins will also be closely watched after his actions in the last Boston game.
All these injuries and suspensions did was prolong the series a game or two. The Cavs are still the better team with the best player on the floor. Love had been playing well in the Boston series, but I think it's funny that people went from "Love is having such a bad year" to "Love being injured is such a big deal." Wait, if he's having such a bad year and the Cavs are still finding success, how is it a big deal if he's injured?
With Love out, the Cavs will have to change how they run their offense a little. Love does help to spread out the floor as he's a really good jump shooter. But the Cavs have enough pieces and are flexible enough to adapt to his loss.
Here's a look at the Cavs frontcourt:
- Timofey Mozgov
- Tristan Thompson
- Kendrick Perkins
- Mike Miller
- Brendan Haywood
- James Jones
- Shawn Marion
Oh ya, and they have a guy named LeBron James that can play the 4.
Everyone on that list except Miller, Jones, and Marion are low-post guys. They aren't great outside shooters. Miller is an even better shooter than Love, he just hasn't had as much playing time. Jones is a great outside shooter as well although he's a little small for the four with his 6'8" frame. Marion has spent some time at the four even though he's only 6'7", but he's a little tougher than Jones. Mozgov, Haywood, and Perkins are all centers. I think the bigger loss would be to Mozgov. Ever since he came over in the trade from Denver, he's provided the rim-protecting dimension that they lacked. Thompson is a great rebounder and a capable starter on most teams at the four, but he's not blocking shots. Perkins is a solid defender and notably a great enforcer. If the series gets physical down low, expect him to be in there.
So with Mozgov, Perkins, and Haywood all legitimate options at the five and Thompson, Miller, Jones, Marion, and James able to split time at the four, it limits Love's loss to his outside shot. But again, Miller and Jones are better shooters than Love from the 3. Thompson will take the bulk of his 30+ minutes per game with the rest of the frontcourt probably more involved in the rotation. The Cavs have a lot of good pieces to use, but may end up playing James at the four more often and switching in Mozgov, Thompson, and Haywood or Perkins. James doesn't like playing down low, but he'll do what he has to in order to win.
Here's a look at Chicago's frontcourt:
- Pau Gasol
- Joakim Noah
- Taj Gibson
- Nazr Mohammed
- Nikola Mirotic
- Cameron Bairstow
The Bulls don't actually have a ton of depth. The Cavs will get Love and Varejao back next year to an already-stacked frontcourt. Gasol and Noah are very good; Gasol more on offense and Noah more on defense. Gibson can have really good games and Mirotic is doing very well for a rookie. However, all of these players can be matched up by guys on Cleveland.
With so much focus on the frontcourt, the real battle will be decided in the backcourt. Rose, Butler, Dunleavy, Snell, and Brooks are the main guys with Irving, Shumpert, Smith, Dellavedova, and James on the Cavs side. If Rose and Butler can play at elite levels, this series will be very close. With Smith being out the first two games of the series, they'll have to rely more heavily on Shumpert and Dellavedova.
With the Bulls struggling to put away the Bucks, it may be an indication that they will have even bigger problems with the Cavaliers. It may help Rose get some more game-experience before he has to raise his game up a level. Maybe with the time off, the Cavaliers get too complacent. Or they get rusty. However, I'll take my chances with players like James and Irving leading the charge. Cavs beat the Bulls in seven.
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