Saturday, August 8, 2015

The Browns Season Outlook



Football season is almost back!! As Cleveland sports fans, we face a dilemma: do we invest our time in the Cavs because they nearly pulled off a championship with six healthy players held together by duct tape or do we invest it in the Browns who are really good and getting better, not as good as the Cavs, but we love football more? We may be stupid for doing so, but come August and September, we patch the holes and then fill up our collective "hope" tank and sport two of the worst colors in sports franchises today: orange and brown.

In this blog post, I wanted to update those of you who don't have the time to pay attention to everything the Browns are doing. So here are some of the summations from the off-season, training camp, and what analysts have pegged around the league. First to Josh McCown and the QB situation. 

QB's & RB's

When the Browns grabbed Josh McCown, my first thought was, "Crap...there goes next season." I knew there was a slim chance we'd be grabbing Mariota by then, the only QB in the draft who I thought would be any good. I don't really think Mariota will be a star, but I think he'll be decent.

So instead, the Browns stuck with Johnny Manziel (eye roll) and Josh McCown. McCown had several good games with the Bears two years ago, was horrible last year with the Bucs, and will now captain the Browns. There are some things the Browns have that those two teams don't. The Browns have a strong run game that those teams didn't. Doug Martin had a breakout season for the Bucs two years ago but had a sophomore slump. Matt Forte for the Bears is exceptional but is injury-prone. Even when the Browns Ben Tate got injured last year, they had two running backs who really stepped up and played well...and as rookies!

O-Line

The other thing the Browns have that partially explains their run game but really helps out QB's is their O-line. They have arguably the #1 offensive line in the NFL. Dallas arguably has the other. The Browns have the #1 offensive lineMAN in Joe Thomas. Alex Mack is one of the top centers (top paid, at least) and Joel Bitonio has been the perfect addition at left guard. The Browns just need to solidify the right side. While John Greco at guard and Mitchell Schwartz at tackle are good, with Schwartz being a little bit better, they're not as good as the left side. So, the Browns drafted Cameron Erving, a top OL who has the ability to play backup center. He is currently battling Greco for a starting spot at right guard. When Mack went down last season with an injury, so did the run game. This was the perfect O-lineman for the Browns to grab.

One of the top guys the Browns grabbed was right tackle Michael Bowie. He's been a standout in training camp this off-season. Again, it's only training camp, but Bowie was a starter on Seattle's championship O-line. He has the experience and has had success in the NFL, so I really like him. If he and Erving can hold down that right line (and they don't have to do it alone; Greco and Schwartz would be among the best backup O-linemen in the NFL, but right now they're starters due to a lack of depth on that side of the line), the Browns will clearly have the best O-line. I'm pretty sure the O-line rankings are as follows:

1. Joe Thomas
2. Alex Mack
3. Joel Bitonio
4. Mitchell Schwartz
5 (tied). John Greco and Cameron Erving
7. Michael Bowie
8. Everyone else

The browns tend to have a tight rotation, so I'm guessing 7-8 guys will be in the games. Thomas, Mack, and Bitonio don't come out. The others might, though.

Back to QB's

Which brings things back to McCown. He has clearly separated himself from the other QB's in camp, something Hoyer couldn't do. So I think he's better than Hoyer. However, I don't think he will be the Josh McCown of the Bears from two years ago, either. He's a journeyman QB; he's been a lot of places, he's old, and he's just good enough to make it as a viable backup. He's not our long-term answer at QB, but that's okay. Unlike a number of people, I don't think we have our franchise guy on the roster: Connor Shaw, Johnny Manziel, or Thaddeus Lewis. Terrelle Pryor did okay at QB last year but has been converted to WR. I'd actually be more intrigued by Pryor than anyone else. He went to Ohio State, so I've followed Pryor for some time now. In fact, I'm really happy he got those tattoos in college which led to Tressel's firing because now we have Urban Meyer, baby!!

Anyway, Pryor has slimmed down, gotten in good football shape, and has thrown for at least one touchdown, albeit on a trick play. I'm not a huge fan of trick plays, but I am to doing things that get us points. I'm also open to letting Pryor try out for the QB job. He never really learned the fundamentals of being an NFL quarterback, maybe he could be starter-caliber. I don't think he's a lock or anything and by no means should the Browns stop pursuing a bonified franchise QB. With Hoyer, I thought he had a shot at becoming a franchise-level QB for the Browns. When he didn't pan out, I felt that it was time to move on. Same thing goes for any Browns QB.

WR's

There are a couple of other battles raging besides O-line. One of the unexpected ones is at WR. I don't know why the fans were upset at the lack of WR selection in the draft. First of all, the value of WR's has gone down. It's pretty obvious when you look at some of the top teams. Let's take some of the top teams in the NFL over the past few seasons: New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, and the Seattle Seahawks. Look at their receiving corps...does anyone else want them? What do they all have in common? Situationally good defenses, good to great at QB, and solid coaching. This should give Browns fans hope because we have at least one of these, possibly two as we see more of Pettine's decisions being made. We just need that QB.

So with less of a need for top WR talent (how many championships do Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, and Antonio Brown have?), we don't need stars at WR. I think we actually have a really good WR corp. The Browns have two good to great WR's in Dwayne Bowe and Andrew Hawkins, but they also have newly-acquired Terelle Pryor (a big target, that's nice), Brian Hartline, Travis Benjamin, Taylor Gabriel, Vince Mayle, Darius Jennings, Josh Lenz, and Shane Wynn. Oh yeah, and if Josh Gordon ever gets his act together, we will have arguably the #1 WR in the league. Let's stop with the clamoring for an over-priced receiver when we already have a decent receiving corp and can use that money to pay a franchise QB. If I were to rank the WR's, it'd look something like this:

1. Andrew Hawkins
2. Dwayne Bowe (he could overtake #1)
3. Brian Hartline
4. Terelle Pryor (he could overtake #3)
5. Taylor Gabriel
6. Travis Benjamin
7. Darius Jennings
8. Shane Wynn
9. Vince Mayle
10. Josh Lenz

Again, if Josh Gordon gets his head together, all of these guys would slide down a slot. Some of these guys probably won't make it to the final roster, but may grab a spot on the practice squad. Some may stay relegated to special teams unless injuries come up.

RB's

An expected battle is raging at RB. Leading rusher Terrance West and touchdown-specialist Isaiah Crowell, both second-year players, are atop the mix. The Browns also drafted Duke Johnson. When I graded this pick for the draft, I gave it a C+. This isn't because he isn't a good player, because he is. Even though he only ran a 4.5, in the game he's got great acceleration, can hit cut-back lanes, and is very versatile.

Running backs tend to go through injuries a lot due to the nature of the position, so the Browns may keep four or five backs. Plus they work well on special teams. To begin training camp, there's also Shaun Draughn, Glenn Winston, and Luke Lundy competing for spots. On Monday the Browns also signed Timothy Flanders and Jalen Parmele. I have no idea who ranks where, I just know the top three are West, Crowell, and Johnson.

Then there's fullback Malcolm Johnson. For a long time, Chris Ogbonnaya was the Browns fullback while sized as a running back. This Johnson used to play tight end in college and is a great route runner. In fact, he received a lot of praise here from the coaching staff for his unique skill set. I personally love TE's for this exact reason: they can play multiple positions. They have the largest skill-set of any offensive player as they can block, catch, and run. On that note, tight end E.J Bibbs is also having a good training camp. He may see some time on the field this season with Johnson.

Defense

There's been a lot of upgrades on the defensive side, too. Tramon Williams, a veteran, is in the backfield with Joe Haden. Danny Shelton is doing a good job on the defensive line. Nate Orchard will develop into a good LB. Karlos Dansby comes back from injury. The defense is already great, if they can put these new pieces together, they'll be even better.

There is a lot to be happy about if you're a Browns fan. Ever since Jimmy Haslam has taken over, the Browns have steadily gotten better each year. This league has changed. It is now a quarterback-driven league. When experts come out at the beginning of the year to cross off teams who could make the super bowl, they're always the teams with below-average QB's. And the worst part is those experts are always right. The Colts went from the worst team in the league to a playoff team in a year. That's not a surprise because Andrew Luck is going to be a hall of famer. So until the Browns have that kind of guy...not an Andrew Luck because those only come along once in a generation, but a capable QB like Eli Manning or Joe Flacco. Until we get one of those kinds of guys, we won't be sniffing the super bowl anytime soon.

That said, we have a good shot at the playoffs this year if all goes well. We're good enough. Go Browns!!


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