Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Most "Valuable" Player



The NBA's Most Valuable Player award has had some push-back from people who feel as I do: it doesn't mean the same thing as "best player." To be fair, I'm all in favor of changing it to it's rightful syntax. I'd go with the "Player of the Year" award as they do in college football. I'd even give that award to Steph Curry this year, just so everyone knows I'm not anti-Curry. He's a tremendous player. But when we talk about a player being most valuable, that doesn't limit the award to statistics and clutch shots.

I recently made a list of players who I feel are more deserving of the MVP award:


  • LeBron James
  • Damian Lillard
  • Chris Paul
  • Kyle Lowry
  • Paul George
  • Dwayne Wade
  • Jimmy Butler
  • James Harden
  • Anthony Davis


Then I also included a list of players who are in the conversation with Steph for MVP. These players include:


  • Kevin Durant
  • Russell Westbrook
  • Andre Drummond
  • Draymond Green
  • Dirk Nowitzki


If just one of these players below were put above Curry, which I think you could make arguments for, then Steph Curry isn't even in the top ten of MVP voting. But he's flashy, he shoots the 3-ball better than anybody, and he's well-liked in the court of public opinion. That's why he was unanimously voted MVP this year.

I get it, but Curry isn't as valuable to his team as people think. He's a great 3-point shooter, right? In the Portland series, his team set a playoff-record number for most 3's....WITHOUT HIM! His team is going to win the first two rounds of the playoffs, basically WITHOUT HIM! In the WEST! Chris Paul, whose on my list, went down and the Clippers didn't win another game. LeBron was out six games this year as part of his new annual-rest program. The Cavs went 1-5.

If you took any of these players off their teams, most of them wouldn't even make the playoffs. The Pelicans without Davis would be worse than the Lakers. Indiana would be rebuilding without Paul George, especially now that their coach has been fired. If you took Curry off of the Warriors, they're still a playoff team, probably top five in the West. They're beating Houston and Portland without him. They're setting 3-point shooting records without him. The fact is Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are both really good players, and they have a really deep team. Iguodala used to be "the" guy for Philly before they decided to tank it. Livingston was a highly-touted recruit, who I'm sad about because the Cavs used to have him. The Warriors are loaded. If Steph was replaced by Damian Lillard, Vegas drops them a point...that's it, which in basketball isn't very much. An NBA scout verified that the sentiment around the league is that the Warriors could replace Steph with a not-so-great version and still be the best team in the league. Those aren't my opinions, those are the words of an active NBA scout.

If you can take Steph off the Warriors and they barely miss a beat, if at all, then that means he's not extremely valuable to them. Again, take LeBron off the Cavs? They may not be a playoff team in the EAST! Every year, even when he went to Miami and I wouldn't have voluntarily admitted this, LeBron is the MVP. As long as he's still in his prime, which he's going to be leaving any minute now, he's the MVP every year. It's not even close.

This brings me to my next point. Being the most valuable player actually has more to do with the nominees' teammates than it does that player himself. For Curry, his team is fine without him. He has great teammates. LeBron's team wouldn't be fine. In fact, when LeBron went to Miami, the Cavs went from 60 wins to 19 wins. Granted, there were some injuries, but that's quite a fall. Kyrie and most of the Cavs couldn't even make the playoffs in the EAST until LeBron came back. Even when Jordan, the greatest player of all time, left the Bulls, they went from 57 to 55 wins. Jordan had a solid team when he left. Chris Paul's team goes from a top 4 team in the West to possibly not even a playoff team. Damian Lillard is keeping the Blazers alive almost by himself.

Does that mean you get punished a little by having a great team? Not necessarily, but you can't get the bonus points of LeBron leading a Cavs team to the finals in 2007 with Larry Hughes as his best teammate. Peyton Manning carried the Colts for years, including to multiple super bowls, and when he left they won two games. Two! That's an MVP. Same with Andrew Luck. The Colts WERE a two-win team when they drafted him and he's taken them to the playoffs one step further every year. He's an MVP. In the 2014 World Series, Madison Bumgarner basically won three of the four games for the Giants, including the pivotal 7th game. He's an MVP and on a great team.

So most valuable player has more to do with your team, circumstances, and the MVP-nominees contribution than it does just based on that players accomplishments. Steph deserves most outstanding player or player of the year, but he's far from deserving the MVP award.

Sunday, May 1, 2016

The 2016 Cleveland Browns NFL Draft Recap



It's a new era for the Cleveland Browns...again...for the 3rd time in 5 years. Browns fans aren't happy when they hear the word "rebuilding." However, with the new administration, it may be the last rebuild for a while. These guys are definitely doing things their way, and we'll see if that leads to a championship-level team.

I don't think anyone really knows what such a full-blown move to analytics is going to look like, especially in a year or two when that's combined with how those analytics translate on the field and especially in Cleveland. I do know that these are smart guys, both Sashi Brown and Paul DePodesta, and they have access to not only more information, but better information. So I will give them the benefit of the doubt most of the time, even if the media or unpopular opinion says otherwise.

All that being said, here's how the 2016 NFL draft shook out for Cleveland (I won't go through all the trades, there were too many). The grades given after each player reflect the pick as a whole, not just the player:


Round 1, Pick 15: Corey Coleman, WR Baylor

I don't like this pick. It has nothing to do with Coleman as a player, it has to do with the situation the Browns were in. They had the #2 pick in the draft, then #8, then #15. They could've done a lot with this pick. Instead, they picked a WR.

First, I don't thnk that RG3 is going to be our franchise QB. He may become "a" franchise QB but I don't think he will be the Browns guy. Since we don't have one on our roster, I think they should've taken Carson Wentz. Then they moved down twice, and I thought they should've taken Paxton Lynch. The Broncos learned that the 49ers wanted Lynch, so they gave up picks to get him. When smart people do things, pay attention. Elway is arguably the league's best GM and he wanted Lynch. The Browns should've taken their franchise QB right here.

So that's the first thing. The Browns should've taken a franchise QB since they had two chances to get one and especially given RG3's history with injuries. That doesn't show up in analytics. I think Sashi Brown is smart to get great value out of his picks, which he did this year. There's just one huge exception to that rule: quarterback. Do whatever you have to in order to get that guy. Ask the Colts that question. Without Andrew Luck, the Colts are a 3-win team. We had a shot at two, we took zero.

The second problem I had with the first round pick in Coleman is his position. Look at the last two years, especially last year's playoff semi-final. There's no Megatron, no Julio Jones, no insert-your-best-WR-here guy. Aside from Gronk, who is an outlier and plays TE, a lot of these WR's wouldn't even start on other teams. I think the position that has quickly become the most overrated is WR. Since defenses can't put their hands on them, even mediocre receivers can now look great, especially with a great QB and in the right system. Not that I'm depending on him, but if Josh Gordon ever gets his act together in Cleveland, he is the best WR in the league anyway.

All that being said, I don't like the Coleman pick. He played in a great college system against mediocre Big 12 defenses. His numbers are going to be inflated. He's fast, and that's great. But Travis Benjamin was fast and that didn't mean much. For a long time,  he was a 3rd or 4th-stringer on a below-average receiving corp. Then once he started running better routes and actually catching the ball, he became a solid option. If Coleman becomes great, great. Maybe this was a weapon for RG3 to show him that the Browns are doing things to allow him to succeed. If that's the case, okay, I get it. Still not a great pick though. Grade: D-

Round 2, Pick 32: Emmanuel Ogbah, DE Oklahoma State

I will say that the Browns are now picking the right kind of guys. These guys don't have problems off the field, they come from humble backgrounds, and have chips on their shoulders. Cleveland can't afford any more Josh Gordons and Johnny Manziel's. Ogbah's story is a really cool one.

So here comes Ogbah. The knock on him is that he was inconsistent in college. I think Sashi Brown summed it up best. He said to look at all of Ogbahs' games against up-tempo offenses: he stunk. Now look at all of them against normal or slower offenses: he did exceptionally well. In the NFL, unless we play the 49ers, we won't be playing against fast offenses. He's a solid pick. They had him graded as a 1st round talent and I think you could make the argument for that. And they picked him over Noah Spence, who some thought was better but who's a guy that had to mail 20 drug test results to all NFL teams to show he's actually serious about his career now. Even if Spence is better, Cleveland needs a guy like Ogbah, even if he is slightly less talented which I don't think he is.
Grade: B+

Round 3, Pick 65: Carl Nassib, DE Penn State

Again, this is the right kind of guy. Kudos for that point.

I always laugh when I hear guys say, "you should take this guy because he's a winner." Especially in college. Tim Tebow was a winner in college. Ryan Leaf, Vince Young, Jake Long, Michael Sam, there are a lot of "winners" in college who don't make it in the NFL. So picking a guy in college simply because he's a "winner" doesn't make sense to me.

However, picking a guy because of his work ethic does appeal to me. There's something to be said about a guy always beating the odds. Nassib has been told on every level he wasn't good enough and has worked his way into success on every level. Nassib is a guy who will do whatever is asked of him, and there's a good chance he'll succeed at it. I don't know if he will be an every-down starter. He may be a package edge-rusher or just a special teams guy, but he will come to work every day. This guy could easily develop into a solid starter.
Grade: B

Round 3, Pick 76: Shon Coleman, OT Auburn

There's always a debate in draft selection: do you take best player available or need? What is there's a really talented DE but you already have five? What is he's head-and-shoulders better than everyone else in the draft? What do you do?

I think you draft for talent using need as a guide. In the case of Coleman, you have both. He's very talented, although it's a slight risk in that he's coming off of an MCL injury. He's also needed on a line that just lost 1 great player and 1 starter. He's a big guy, great skills as a blocker, and can play a couple different positions. We really need a strong O-line, and even if he doesn't work out as a starter, he provides really nice depth at a depleted position.
Grade: A-

Round 3, Pick 93: Cody Kessler, QB USC

This was probably the worst player-pick in the draft. Coach Hue Jackson loves this guy, but when asked about it, said "I understand where everyone's coming from. You gotta trust me on this one." I know Hue's not the same guy who picked Manziel. In fact, he ran Manziel out of town which I loved. But you'll forgive me if I'm a tad overly cynical when it comes to QB selections, especially after having passed on two franchise QB's to take this guy. Supposedly Kessler is one of the most accurate passers in the draft, but Kessler couldn't drive the ball down the field in sunny L.A. You think he's gonna do it in Cleveland's weather? Not a chance. I'm growing a little tired of the Browns, who play in a very cold division, taking weak-armed QB's (Manziel, Colt McCoy, Brady Quinn, Tim Couch) seemingly every year. When are we going to learn? Kessler's accuracy isn't going to matter much because of the weather conditions he hasn't had to deal with yet. Look around at all the other AFC North (and NFC North) QB's: they all have big arms or their teams are held back because their QB is Andy Dalton or Teddy Bridgewater. Stafford, Rodgers, Favre when he was there, Flacco, Big Ben, Cutler...all big-armed QB's. You need that in bad weather. Even Connor Cook has a better arm than this guy and was available at the time. Bad pick.
Grade: D-

Round 4, Pick 99: Joe Schobert, OLB Wisconsin

This was the favorite pick of Mel Kiper and Todd McShay for the Cleveland Browns to this point. Schobert isn't a really big guy but seemed to make really good plays. He found himself around the ball. He isn't a big guy but he could knock some guys over. I think that the captains on a football team are found in the middle of the field: QB, center, DT, MLB, and safety. Keep your captains in the middle and provide competition everywhere else. Schobert brings in some good competition for a spot he may eventually win, especially in Horton's 3-4 scheme. And this is an area of need. Solid pick.
Grade: A-

Round 4, Pick 114: Ricardo Louis, WR Auburn

The WR I wanted from Auburn was Sammie Coates last year. I don't think many people would argue that this selection wasn't a reach...it was. He's fast and athletic. He's got a lot of confidence. Louis may end up on special teams for a while, but he's got enough athletic talent to at least be considered on this WR corp, especially if Josh Gordon doesn't play this year.

For years the Browns have been criticized for not taking WR's. I argue that this position is overrated, that you don't need great WR's. Plus, this guy may not even be the best WR on his own team. Only time will tell.
Grade: C

Round 4, Pick 129: Derrick Kindred, S TCU

If nothing else, this guy is a tough guy. Apparently he had a broken collarbone his whole final season at TCU. Still managed to make 80 tackles. I like his tenacity and he earned a spot on a very talented defense. Especially with the departure of Gipson, if Kindred doesn't win out the starting spot, he'll wind up on the field somewhere. He's very talented and works really hard.
Grade: B

Round 4, Pick 138: Seth Devalve, WR Princeton

I don't really get this pick, either. He's listed as a WR but will probably play some TE or slot receiver. He's had some foot issues, so that's a concern. The Browns continue to add skill position players, I'm guessing to pacify RG3. I don't really know why they went with this pick, especially when they could've gotten a guard like Connor McGovern or Joe Dahl, some D-linemen, or highly-ranked RB's who were taken shortly after.
Grade: C-

Round 5, Pick 151: Jordan Payton, WR UCLA

Even though they've picked way too many WR's at this point, I like Payton. He's got good size and great hands, possibly the best in the draft. I have him ranked as the 2nd-best WR the Browns took behind Coleman. He could be a solid slot receiver, or just a completion guy who runs solid routes for shorter yardage. The fact that the Browns got him so late is a great reflection on Sashi and company.
Grade: B-

Round 5, Pick 168: Spencer Drango, OT Baylor

Browns reporter Pat McManamon thinks that Drango will end up being a guard, despite playing tackle in college. I agree. In fact, I think college tackles make great NFL guards. He's got some speed to him and he's great at run-blocking. He's 6'6" and 315 lbs. Baylor disguised him in their offense as he was a below-average pass-protector and Baylor is a passing team. But with his combination of size and speed, plus he's a smart guy, I think right guard opposite Joel Bitonio would be the perfect spot for him, but he still has the ability to play tackle as he did very well in college. It seems like the Browns are becoming Baylor-North.
Grade: B

Round 5, Pick 172: Rashard Higgins, WR Colorado State

I didn't watch any Colorado State games this year, but from the highlights I've seen and articles I've on him, he seems like a solid player. He's got some size at 6'1"and he made some good plays. He'll definitely be in the running for a spot at WR, especially at first since he's already played in a pro style offense. He isn't the most talented receiver they got, but he is the most NFL-ready receiver they picked up.
Grade: B-

Round 5, Pick 173: Trey Caldwell, CB Louisiana-Monroe

This was the second of back-to-back Browns picks. He's only 5'9" but I love taking players from small schools at this point in the draft. There's always a risk factor of how they're going to handle the elevated competition. Typically players from FCS schools don't go up against many NFL players. Caldwell will compete for nickel and dime corner spots, but will probably end up on special teams for a while. A decent amount of upside with little downside.
Grade: B

Round 7, Pick 250: Scooby Wright III, ILB Arizona

The final of 14 picks in the draft, possibly the best pick in the draft. Most people had him going in the 3rd or 4th rounds. Scooby has a lot of talent, but injuries have plagued him. That's always a wild card, but wild cards are great choices in round 7. If he's as talented as he was before his injuries, he'll easily be a starter in a year or two. He won't even have to assume the main ILB job as he'd be in a 3-4. He can cover and rush the passer. This pick strongly assures me that Sashi Brown may not hit home runs in the first and second rounds, but he's a guy who will pick out some really good players in the later rounds, even if Scooby doesn't turn out to be one of them.
Grade: A-


So here are the grades for each round:

Round 1: D-
Round 2: B+
Round 3: B, A-, D-
Round 4: A-, C, B, C-
Round 5: B-, B, B-, B
Round 7: A-

Now, if you just went off grades giving no weight to earlier picks, the Browns would get a B- based on my grades. However, since rounds 1-3 clearly represent your better picks, I'd have to give a C as my overall grade. I think Shon, Joe, and Scooby were the best picks of the draft. Of those, I'd probably say the best was Scooby considering his value.

I have some mixed feelings about this draft, which makes me want to trust in the Browns front office right now. I'm not as close to the organization, so there are probably reasons why they're doing what they're doing. Hopefully they know what they're doing. I remember a couple years ago when the Rams opted to go for 2 instead of kicking an easy field goal. They got hammered because it would've put them in a position to kick a field goal to tie the game. Instead they didn't convert and ended up losing because they needed a touchdown to win. Jeff Fisher got killed in the media. What everyone didn't know, including the media, is that while their kicker was out (everyone knew that), their second guy wasn't 100% and neither was the long-snapper. With that many people out, he didn't want to take a chance on missing a field goal. Yet the public criticized him while not knowing the whole story.

If the Browns truly consider RG3 to be their future franchise guy, then Sashi and Paul did a good job. I'd upgrade them from a C to a B+ overall. I just don't think that's the case, and I don't like that they passed on two consensus franchise QB's in the first round. They also took too many WR's. They got some extra picks over the next couple of years which I think is great. They obviously know how to wheel and deal. They can find great value picks, which will be important AFTER we get a franchise QB. But maybe we already have.

I'm sure there's a lot of things going on behind closed doors. Out of all the good and bad decisions the Browns have made so far since the new owner arrived, only one has been absolutely horrendous decision: drafting Johnny Manziel. All the other bad decisions happen to a lot of teams. I really don't like that they passed over on a franchise QB, but they've made some good moves as well. Time will really tell us if they're legitimate and if "NFL Moneyball" is going to work. Here's to hoping.