News has come out over the past day about Kevin Love's injury. It turns out he will most likely miss the entire series with the Bulls (or the Bucks, the way that they're playing) and possibly the rest of the playoffs. Even if he does come back, there are questions about how effective he'll be. If you thought he was merely a jump shooter before, wait until you see him at less than 100%.
A lot of analysts are now switching their pick from the Cavs to the Bulls as the eastern conference representative. The winner of this game will probably go to the NBA Finals. The Cavs not only lose Love for at least a few games, but they'll be without J.R Smith for two. Kendrick Perkins will also be closely watched after his actions in the last Boston game.
All these injuries and suspensions did was prolong the series a game or two. The Cavs are still the better team with the best player on the floor. Love had been playing well in the Boston series, but I think it's funny that people went from "Love is having such a bad year" to "Love being injured is such a big deal." Wait, if he's having such a bad year and the Cavs are still finding success, how is it a big deal if he's injured?
With Love out, the Cavs will have to change how they run their offense a little. Love does help to spread out the floor as he's a really good jump shooter. But the Cavs have enough pieces and are flexible enough to adapt to his loss.
Here's a look at the Cavs frontcourt:
- Timofey Mozgov
- Tristan Thompson
- Kendrick Perkins
- Mike Miller
- Brendan Haywood
- James Jones
- Shawn Marion
Oh ya, and they have a guy named LeBron James that can play the 4.
Everyone on that list except Miller, Jones, and Marion are low-post guys. They aren't great outside shooters. Miller is an even better shooter than Love, he just hasn't had as much playing time. Jones is a great outside shooter as well although he's a little small for the four with his 6'8" frame. Marion has spent some time at the four even though he's only 6'7", but he's a little tougher than Jones. Mozgov, Haywood, and Perkins are all centers. I think the bigger loss would be to Mozgov. Ever since he came over in the trade from Denver, he's provided the rim-protecting dimension that they lacked. Thompson is a great rebounder and a capable starter on most teams at the four, but he's not blocking shots. Perkins is a solid defender and notably a great enforcer. If the series gets physical down low, expect him to be in there.
So with Mozgov, Perkins, and Haywood all legitimate options at the five and Thompson, Miller, Jones, Marion, and James able to split time at the four, it limits Love's loss to his outside shot. But again, Miller and Jones are better shooters than Love from the 3. Thompson will take the bulk of his 30+ minutes per game with the rest of the frontcourt probably more involved in the rotation. The Cavs have a lot of good pieces to use, but may end up playing James at the four more often and switching in Mozgov, Thompson, and Haywood or Perkins. James doesn't like playing down low, but he'll do what he has to in order to win.
Here's a look at Chicago's frontcourt:
- Pau Gasol
- Joakim Noah
- Taj Gibson
- Nazr Mohammed
- Nikola Mirotic
- Cameron Bairstow
The Bulls don't actually have a ton of depth. The Cavs will get Love and Varejao back next year to an already-stacked frontcourt. Gasol and Noah are very good; Gasol more on offense and Noah more on defense. Gibson can have really good games and Mirotic is doing very well for a rookie. However, all of these players can be matched up by guys on Cleveland.
With so much focus on the frontcourt, the real battle will be decided in the backcourt. Rose, Butler, Dunleavy, Snell, and Brooks are the main guys with Irving, Shumpert, Smith, Dellavedova, and James on the Cavs side. If Rose and Butler can play at elite levels, this series will be very close. With Smith being out the first two games of the series, they'll have to rely more heavily on Shumpert and Dellavedova.
With the Bulls struggling to put away the Bucks, it may be an indication that they will have even bigger problems with the Cavaliers. It may help Rose get some more game-experience before he has to raise his game up a level. Maybe with the time off, the Cavaliers get too complacent. Or they get rusty. However, I'll take my chances with players like James and Irving leading the charge. Cavs beat the Bulls in seven.
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