The Cavaliers Conundrum

The Cleveland Cavaliers haven't been on the map since he-who-shall-not-be-named (HWSNBN) left Ohio. Now they're on stage. Maybe not front and center, but at least they're on the stage. They've just hired a new coach from oversees WITH an assistant who was one of the final two on their list. They have the number one pick in the draft coming up on Thursday. HWSNBN has opted out of his contract and Cleveland is on the list of teams who could potentially land him. Lots of excitement is happening in the forest city.

The current roster consists of Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, Anderson Varejao, Tristan Thompson, Anthony Bennett, Alonzo Gee, Tyler Zeller, Jarrett Jack, Matthew Dellavedova, Sergey Karasev, Carrick Felix, and Scotty Hopson. There are three players who will be free agents on July 1st: Spencer Hawes, Luol Deng, and C.J Miles. Having seen C.J for years in Utah, please let him go. Deng is probably not going to come back. Hawes may be coming back, depending on what else the Cavs do in the upcoming weeks. He was a good fit last year, especially with the injury woes the Cavs had.

Irving will be the untouchable asset for them. They'll want to keep Thompson, Bennett, and Varejao but nobody else is untouchable. Waiters is probably first off the table, which is sad because I think he's really underrated. However, if you can't play with the star on your team, you're most likely asking for a ticket out. Jack, Zeller, and Karasev could be additional trade pieces.

The Draft

Much to the country's dismay, the Cavs own (once again) the number one pick in this year's draft. Joel Embiid was the consensus pick until his medical results came out. A big having back and leg problems is not a great choice at #1. Since the top three picks are on a different level than the rest of the players, this means the Cavs will take either Jabaari Parker or Andrew Wiggins.

Over the course of the last couple weeks, Parker and Wiggins have come in to workout for the Cavs. Parker had a poor workout and, what's more concerning, doesn't seem to want to play in Cleveland. Wiggins had a really good workout and has voiced his enthusiasm to play for the Cavaliers. Sources coming out of Cleveland say that the decision-makers had a meeting to only discuss these two players. If they take anyone else, it will have been a failed draft.

I would take either Wiggins or Parker, but Parker will be the better player. Most have Wiggins not becoming a perennial all-star like Parker. Parker is also more NBA-ready out of the gate. He's got a better NBA frame, can score, and is more complete. He's not as athletic as Wiggins, but he's still very athletic.

I guess I'm torn on who to take. With Parker there, unless HWSNBN returns to Cleveland, it doesn't sound like he would stay past his initial contract. If that's the case, I think I'd lean towards taking Wiggins even though I prefer Parker. Again, anyone else would be a mistake.

Another option the Cavs have is to trade this pick to get another veteran. Not a bad option. Depending on the veteran, though, it may not be a great move since you don't get a potential superstar in Wiggins or Parker, unless Embiid turns out to be healthy. The Jazz have Derrick Favors and possibly Alec Burks, along with the 5th and potentially 23rd pick, to jump up and get the LDS Parker. Sixers are offering Thaddeus Young. I like Burks, but neither Favors or Young would be a good enough package for me to trade down. Kevin Love isn't really on the table, but maybe he should be.

Free Agency

After the draft comes free agency. Obviously HWSNBN and Melo own the headlines. The biggest determinant in the Heat staying together are Bosh and Wade, particularly Wade. If he ops in or opts out and demands a max contract, that will spell trouble for the Heat's roster.

There are some other interesting names out there: Lance Stephenson, Danny Granger, Pau Gasol, Thabo Sefolosha, Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza, Kirk Hinrich, and Avery Bradley. None of these names jump out at you, but would provide an upgrade in most positions. The Cavs will need to upgrade their roster, preferably with another superstar, if they want to attract either of the two superstars on this list. It's at a time like this where the Cavs should hire Browns GM Ray Farmer.

Argument for Getting LeBron James

Okay, so I'm not the biggest LBJ fan. Many Clevelanders can attest to that. However, if he decided to come back to Cleveland to bring us some championships, I think that counts as repentance. It will take a lot to get him back, though. I don't think it's gonna happen but crazier things have happened.

The Cavs have a superstar in Irving, and he plays a position that fits with James. Since the NBA is all about big threes now, Cleveland would need to get another star at power forward or center. Adding Wiggins or Parker as a wing would give Cleveland a potential superstar for less money, at least for the duration of the contract. But throw James in with a Kevin Love or maybe a Pau Gasol, and that team becomes the favorite to win the east. Dan Gilbert would also have to offer a really great apology. As long as he's the owner, I don't think James comes back to Cleveland.

Whatever happens this week should be exciting. It's hard to put a lot of faith into this organization, though, until they start producing better results.

Browns Schedule

The Browns don't have an easy schedule this year, that's for sure. It may not be the toughest, but there are certainly easier ones out there. Take a look at the Browns schedule for 2014:

Based on last years records, it may not seem so daunting. But Houston and Atlanta aren't bad teams; they just had bad years. Some people picked Houston to win the super bowl last year. The Raiders are much improved as are the Jags. The Colts are better, the Bengals are slightly better, and the Bucs are better. The Panthers aren't as good. The other teams we won't know until we start playing.

Looking at this schedule, it's going to be tough. The toughest test will be at Cincinnati on Nov. 6 on a short week. Granted, the Bengals will also be on a short week, but they play Jacksonville the week before at home. No travel, easier team, and they're at home against Cleveland on a Thursday. The good news about this game is that afterwards, the Browns will have ten days to recover before they play the Texans.

With the bye week coming during week 4 (that doesn't help much), the Browns will need to go 2-1 against the Steelers on the road, the Saints at home, and the Ravens at home. That's no easy task. If they manage to upset the @ Steelers on the road, they can pick off one of the next two games. I think they're more likely to go 1-2 or even 0-3. But if they beat the @ Steelers and Ravens, they're 2-0 in the division already. The @ Titans should be a very winnable game, because they're not that good and the Browns are coming off a bye week. Out of the next 4 games (Steelers, @ Jags, Raiders, and Bucs), they should be able to grab 2 or 3 of those games at least. That would put them in the 3-5 wins category at the halfway mark. @ Bengals will be tough just because of the conditions. They will have some time to rest before the Texans but they'll be a tough out this year. As will the @ Falcons the next week. They will need to grab one of those games to stay alive for playoff contention.

The @ Bills should be a win, and they'll need to split the next two games against the Colts and Bengals. The Browns do surprisingly well against good teams, beating 3 previous super bowl winning teams the following year in the last few years. The @ Panthers will probably be out of playoff contention by week 16, and they will have gotten worse from last year since they lost all their receivers.

It comes down to week 17 at the Ravens. Both teams could be competing for playoff spots here. The Ravens got better with the addition of Steve Smith from the Panthers, and by now he will have figured out their system. It will be a tough game.

If I have to make a prediction, I will say:

@ Steelers - Loss
Saints - Loss
Ravens - Win
@ Titans - Win
Steelers - Win
@ Jags - Win
Raiders - Loss
Bucs - Win
@ Bengals - Loss
Texans - Loss
@ Falcons - Loss
@ Bills - Win
Colts - Loss
Bengals - Loss
@ Panthers - Win
@ Ravens - Loss

There you have it: Browns finish 7-9 just missing the playoffs but much improved. They lose to the Saints close, to the Raiders close, and to the Bengals (2nd time) close. If they could get a little luck and win a couple of these games, the Browns could win 9 or 10 games this season. Isn't likely, but it's possible. This also includes barring major injuries say to the QB position or several of our star players. If Gordon doesn't play, that will hurt, too. If they win 7 games, I think it will be a very good year considering the coaching staff's first year.

New-Look Browns

For those of you who don't subscribe to ESPN Insider, I don't blame you. I somehow got a free subscription and I am able to look at a couple more intriguing articles a month. This article was noteworthy, though, since it pertains to the Browns. Since only about 10 people look at my blog, I don't think ESPN will mind me sharing. In his article, Sam Monson ranks the NFL rosters from 1-32. Apparently the Browns rank #24.

24. Cleveland Browns

Johnny Manziel brings an excitement to the Browns faithful that hasn't been there since, well, the last fresh new hope the team drafted at quarterback. As we all know, there has been no shortage of 'em in recent years.





Adding Justin Gilbert in the draft was a big move because in 2013 Buster Skrine struggled badly moving around to accommodate Joe Haden tracking an opponent's top receiver. Skrine allowed nine touchdowns in coverage, tied for the league lead, and the Browns need somebody who can hold up a bit better. Donte Whitner should provide a capable replacement for T.J. Ward in the defensive secondary, but the pass-rush still needs attention or a significant leap in performance by Barkevious Mingo, who wound up playing his way to the bench as a rookie.


Second-round guard Joel Bitonio is scheduled to start, but there's a chance he actually proves to be a downgrade on the criminally underrated John Greco, at least initially. The Josh Gordon situation bears close watching, and Miles Austin could end up cracking the top three of the receiver depth chart, possibly ahead of Nate Burleson.


By the numbers: Whether Brian Hoyer or Johnny Football starts Week 1, it's going to be an unknown quantity for the Browns at the most important position on the team. Joe Thomas gives them a single blue-chip player, and Haden is right on the cusp of that designation himself, heading a group of five high-quality starters across both sides of the ball (20.8 percent). The Browns are projected to start two rookies, and that could rise to a league-leading three if Manziel earns the job.

There is a color code assigned:





So in judging by this color chart, we have 1 elite player, 5 high quality players, 2 good starters, 8 average starters, 4 below average starters, 1 poor starter, 1 player without sufficient information, and 2 rookies.


There can be some fluctuation in this starting lineup. Manziel (gulp) may get the start over Hoyer, Gordon may be suspended for the year meaning Miles Austin gets the start, and Bitonio may not make into the starting O-line group over Pinkston. Let's just use this lineup though.


ESPN, or anyone for that matter outside of Cleveland, isn't too high on the Browns. A lot of this is due to the QB position not being solidified. Fair point. But in looking at the rest of the roster, they've really underestimated the Browns lineup. Hoyer may not have enough information on him, but Tate is at least a good starter. Maybe they're taking into account his injuries, but the player himself is an above-average starter.


Barnidge is probably a below-average starter, if not a poor one. The Browns got him for his blocking ability. With Cameron, who is marked as a good starter, they have a great play-maker at TE and don't need another play-making TE. If Cameron has a similar year this season, he'll need to be bumped into the high quality category.


I'm thinking the only reason Josh Gordon isn't marked as elite is due to the fact that he hasn't played at his level consistently. He's a top-3 receiver in this league, but until he does it again, I guess high quality is where he should be. Nate Burleson is right where he should be, below average, as is Hawkins as an average starter. However on a new team with fresh starts, I think they each move up a category. Miles Austin is probably an average starter. He had a pro bowl season and has had good seasons, but isn't a breakout guy. That's okay, the Seahawks didn't have elite WR's either to win the super bowl.


On the offensive line, Joe Thomas is clearly elite. I would put Mack into that category as well. Greco and Schwartz are average starters, though Schwartz grabbed all AFC North honors. Pinkston has been plagued with injuries, but he is talented. Right now I'd have him as a below average starter, but with Bitonio in the starting lineup currently, we don't know what we'll get out of him. If he can do a decent job on that left side, with Thomas and Mack helping out, that side will be pretty solid for whoever starts at QB.

Switching over to defense is where my biggest disagreements are. According to Mr. Monson, the first four starters on the D-line and secondary are all average. I disagree with all of them. Rubin, Taylor, Bryant, and Kruger are all at least good starters. Mingo doesn't start, but he would be an average starter the way he finished the season. He started out as poor but finished strong. This was a top-5 defense for a lot of the season. This is the team that held AP to less than 100 yards. This D-line is a lot better than average.


They nailed Robertson: he's the only weak spot on the Browns defense. They really need to upgrade this spot next year. Dansby is a great addition, and I agree with the high quality mark. Sheard is ranked as a good starter, but I might put him as an average starter.


Joe Haden is arguably the best CB in the NFL. He is an elite player, not just high quality. They mention him in the article as on the cusp, but he is an elite corner in this league according to Deion Sanders himself. I'll take his word over Sam Monson's. Gilbert is a rookie and will probably get the starting job, and Skrine got himself out of the poor category into the below average. With the year he had last year, that's where he belongs. He's a nickel corner, not a starter. Hopefully Gilbert does better.


I'll agree with Whitner who could become an elite safety, especially in this defense. Gipson, though, should be an average starter, not below average. He's been solid over the last couple years.


In my mind, we have 3 elite players (Thomas, Mack, and Haden), 3 high quality players (Gordon, Dansby, and Whitner), 6 good starters (Tate, Cameron, Rubin, Taylor, Bryant, and Kruger), 5 average starters (Hawkins, Greco, Schwartz, Sheard, and Gipson), 3 below average starters (Barnidge, Burleson, and Skrine), 1 poor starter (Robertson), 1 without enough information in Hoyer who I believe will be a good starter to high quality starter, and 2 rookies in Bitonio and Gilbert. I think Bitonio will look better than he is since he's surrounded by two elite O-linemen. If Gilbert can prove to be even an average starter, that will be more than what the Browns have had in recent years and will really help out the secondary. Mingo would qualify as an average starter while Pinkston would be below average. Miles Austin is an average starter.


Once Hoyer decides to stop trying to slide, he will be able to command this offense efficiently. We all saw what happened to the Browns with not only him but an average starter in Jason Campbell commanding the helm: we won games. We've just held on to Weeden for so long and gone through a ton of 2nd and 3rd string QB's (Quinn, Anderson, the list goes on), we haven't known what it's like to have a decent QB. Hoyer and Campbell were decent QB's, and we won games with them. I don't trust Manziel, and not just because of the off-the-field issues or the fact he's a running QB. For more on him, read my Johnny Fracaso post.


Overall, the outlook for this upcoming season is looking bright. I predict 7 or 8 wins. I think they can go as high as 11 wins or as low as 3. If they got to second place in the division, I'd call that a successful year.