Cleveland Browns - Week 7

Browns beat the Steelers!! What a great win for this team to show everyone that the Browns are legit. Hoyer played well, the defense played really well, and Cameron finally had his great game this year. Last year he had several, and my fantasy team has been waiting for him to step up.

The lone black spot from this past week will be the loss of center Alex Mack. The Browns have a talented offensive line, so John Greco will likely take his place while Paul McQuistan will jump in for Greco. Paul served as a valuable starter for Seattle last season when their left tackle went down for a while. It will still be a very talented line, just missing a big piece. If Greco and McQuistan can handle their new roles, the Browns will be just fine up front.

The next three games on the Browns schedule, two of which are at home, are against teams with a combined record of 1-16. They need to win all three of these games to compete in the division. These are all very winnable games. They start out at Jacksonville then return home for Oakland and Tampa Bay. The Browns have a propensity to play down to their opponents. They can't do that for the next three weeks.

After that, the remaining eight teams have a combined record of 25-18-2 (they play Cincinnati twice) with only one team under .500: Atlanta. The Falcons are better than what their record shows. If they can win the three games before this stretch, they'll come into it at 6-2. They also have five road games of these eight games. Here's the rundown:

@ Cincinnati
vs. Houston
@ Atlanta
@ Buffalo
vs. Indianapolis
vs. Cincinnati
@ Carolina
@ Baltimore

At the beginning of the season, I guessed that right now the Browns would be 3-2. They beat the Saints, which I didn't think they'd do, but lost to the Ravens which I had pegged as a win. Last year the Browns beat the Bengals at home despite their 2-1 record. They can beat the Bengals, and they're the best team remaining on their schedule. All of these games are winnable, and starting at the Houston game, Josh Gordon comes back. That changes things a lot. Brian Hoyer has the 7th best QBR (heading into week 7) in the NFL without his best target. While that may not be entirely indicative of his success at QB, he has the least amount of turnovers as well: one.

Originally I had the Browns beating Buffalo and Carolina. I still think Carolina will fade a little bit down the stretch. Their next four games are at Green Bay, vs. Seattle, vs. New Orleans, and at Philly. I think they come out of there with one win and I think by the time the Browns see them in week 16, they won't really care anymore. I really like the Browns against Buffalo because (1) they have Kyle Orton as their quarterback and (2) Mike Pettine will know what they're gonna bring having coached their defense last year. Side note: I think Pettine is the perfect fit for Cleveland, even if he was winless to this point. He's changed some things around and the players are buying in. The Bills have an even record of 3-3, but as teams get more tape on them, their weaknesses will come out. Plus the worse Buffalo does, the better draft pick the Browns get. That adds a little incentive, especially for the coaching staff.

Atlanta is a sneaky tough team, and they have a lot of talent. They just haven't been able to put teams away. They always throw for a ton of yards. Reading Matt Ryan's games this year, he's thrown for 448 (and nearly lost), 231, 286, 298, 316, and 271. But they needed OT to beat New Orleans and have lost 24-10, 41-28, 30-20. and 27-13. The most yards they've gained on the ground is 62 by Antone Smith mostly because of a big 48 yard run that Minnesota gave up. So while I'm in awe at some of their offensive weapons, they just don't beat teams. I'm switching this one to a win.

They can beat the Texans. Houston is a tough team to gauge right now. Everyone focuses on what they did last year, which wasn't much. However, they have a really good defense and talent on offense. So far this year they've beaten bad teams and lost to good teams. This one is a toss up, so I won't be surprised either way. The game is at home, though, so that should help. Also, Josh Gordon will be back (hopefully) so the Texans may have to game plan a little differently than teams up to that point have been able to do. This is what the end of the year could look like:


Up to this point, Browns are 3-2:

@ Jags - Win
Raiders - Win
Bucs - Win
@ Bengals - Loss
Texans - Loss
@ Falcons - Win
@ Bills - Win
Colts - Loss
Bengals - Win
@ Panthers - Win
@ Ravens - Loss

If this holds true, the Browns go 10-6 this year overall and 2-4 in the division. There's always reason to doubt, and they'll probably slip up and lose a game or two they should win, so maybe 8-8 is where they'll land. Winning the next 3 games against bad teams and then going 4-4 down the stretch isn't inconceivable. If they make it to 10-6, that's been good enough to make the playoffs the last three years in the AFC. It's possible for the Browns to make the playoffs this year, but it won't be easy. It'll be a lot of fun to see them actually have a shot at it though.

Browns Update - Week 6

The Cleveland Browns pulled off the biggest road comeback in NFL history last week against the Tennessee Titans. It was tied for the 3rd-biggest comeback of any team in NFL history. There was a celebration afterwards which I think was well-deserved. Now that it's over, it's time to move on and look towards the future.

I love seeing the Browns coming together, I just wish they didn't put themselves in a position to HAVE to make that big of a comeback. The first half was abysmal on both sides of the ball. Once Locker got hurt, the Browns were playing against his backup. This wasn't Andrew Luck they came back against. So while this game should be celebrated, there were some events that had to line up right to make it happen.

Buster Skrine may have improved, but he looked slow out there against the Titans receiving corp. Until Justin Gilbert can make the leap as a solid NFL starter, look for this to still be a hole in the defense.

But there are a lot of positive things to look forward to. Ben Tate's comeback was huge. He has something to prove since the two rookie RB's did well in his absence. I think he's regained his starting role, at least for now. But even if he goes out again with an injury, which is likely, there are two more-than-capable backs who can fill in the literal and figurative holes.

Brian Hoyer, who I've supported since his three wins as a starter last year, has the 8th best QB rating in the NFL of 72.1. Only Rivers, the Mannings, Romo, Rodgers, Luck, and Glennon have better ratings this season. The Browns were also the last team in the NFL to turn the ball over, which they did against the Titans. Not bad that they lasted until week 4. I'm not saying Hoyer is the 8th-best QB. I am saying he is more than just a serviceable starter; he's good. He may not be great, but I think he's good enough to get us to the playoffs and do some great things there. Manziel is looking more and more like just a distraction. Hopefully we can admit our mistake in picking him and grab a second or third round pick for him. Maybe the Cowboys will take another Browns QB. It is Jerry Jones after all.

They're doing all of this without their best offensive weapon in Josh Gordon. He comes back in about 6 weeks now. Imagine what they'll look like offensively with arguably the NFL's best WR back.

Cleveland is now a respectable 2-2, and they lost their two games by a mere 5 points. It hurts that both of those games were divisional games, so they'll have to win out the last four to have a good chance of winning the division. I think they'll take third this year, maybe second. But Mike Pettine has them playing very well, even in their losses. I wouldn't be surprised to see them win the division which is arguably the NFL's toughest.

Doesn't it just feel different, Browns fans? This new coaching staff, a new owner who cares, a new GM who has been nailing it in free agency. We have a QB who actually WANTS to play for the Browns since he grew up a Browns fan. We have the best wide receiver, left tackle, center, and arguably cornerback in the NFL. We have two very good safeties, a great linebacker, a great D-line, three really good running backs, and a very good (and young) left guard. There are some holes, but every team has holes. This Browns team is learning how to win, and in extraordinary comeback fashion. They're changing the Browns culture. We may not make the playoffs this year, but if things keep going like this by everyone involved, they'll see some playoff success in the next two years.

Browns Update - Week 3

After week 2, the Browns are at 1-1. Not bad for a team breaking in a lot of new pieces. We probably would rather take a win over Pittsburgh and a loss to Nawlins but no matter. While not exactly where some fans expected, the Browns are looking good so far this season.

Keep in mind that having a new coach, new system, and a lot of new players makes it hard, especially to begin the year, for a team to gel. And to make things harder, week 2 against the Saints saw the Browns without their top 2 targets in Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron and their starting RB in Ben Tate. Terrence West looks like he may beat Tate out or at least split carries with him. Isaiah Crowell will still need some carries as well. Once Gordon gets back in week 11, possibly week 10, and hopefully with Cameron healthy, they'll have 4 legitimate targets in Gordon, Cameron, Hawkins, and Austin.

Starting with week 11, the Browns will play versus Houston, at Atlanta, at Buffalo, versus Indy, versus Cincy, at Carolina, and at Baltimore. Over the next 7 games, I don't think 3-4 wins is out of the question. They have teams like Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland, and Tampa Bay on their schedule. Four of the next seven are at home as well. So if the Browns can enter week 11 with 4 or 5 wins, they can squeeze out another 3-4 wins with arguably the best WR in the NFL. That might be good enough for a wild card spot in the AFC.

What the first two games have taught is that the Browns are capable of a lot. If they hadn't had such an abysmal first half, even just denying a field goal, they'd be 2-0. It's still early and a lot of things can happen. But if the Browns are able to play with Pittsburgh and mount a comeback against the Saints, they can win a lot of games this year. They have a great defense, one that has a lot of pride and a lot of stars. They have some holes to fill still, yes, namely CB and LB. But overall, this is a top 10 defense. This defense can stop great offensive teams like the Saints.

On offense, it's only going to get better as the season goes UNLESS they decide to throw Manziel into the mix more often. Hoyer is one of those guys who plays better in the games that count. He engineered a comeback in the second half against Pittsburgh and, if the defense holds on that last drive, could've won the game in overtime. He then marches up the field completing passes on third and fourth down without his top two receiving targets. Hawkins and Austin are great 3rd and 4th options, but as 1st and 2nd? That's not easy.

This is why I think Hoyer deserves the starting spot this year, and especially when Gordon comes back. He's a good quarterback and he's better than Manziel. Manziel wins on picking up yards with his feet, but how has that gone for other running QB's at this level? RG3...hurt again this week. Michael Vick...not even starting for the Jets. Vince Young..couldn't beat out Hoyer for the starting job, out of the league. Tebow...gotta mention him. Where is he at? Newton's been beat up and he's built like a LB. Manziel is built like a modest kicker. He runs slower than opposing LB's who have 50 pounds on him. Despite all that, he just can't make the throws. He's had Mike Evans, arguably college football's best receiver, with some NFL linemen to cover his flaws. He doesn't run through progressions well and he can't hit guys on easy routes. He throws behind them. Hoyer can make the NFL throws. He studies, he focuses, he watches film.

Going into the season, I wasn't quite sure if Hoyer should last longer than the first few weeks. But in these two games, just as he did last season, he's shown that he is capable of doing great things. I think he's earned his starting spot past the bye week, which has been and possibly still is in question. As to how much these first two games have bought him, I don't know. I do know that Pettine doesn't want to throw another rookie QB out there, so Hoyer is probably a safe bet for the next few weeks at least.

I don't think anyone would have bet money on the Browns making it, unless someone gave you 10,000 to 1 odds. "If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude." (the Office) It's certainly possible this season. As long as the Browns can get some wins over their division rivals and beat the teams they're better than, they could find themselves in the playoffs this year. With a tough test in Baltimore next week, we'll see how close the Browns are to competing for the division title this year.