Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Browns Off-Season: Answering the QB Question



For the past 15 years, the Browns have had a lot of different QB's. The most in the NFL by far. I'm sure you've seen this picture at some point in time:


There are 20 names on that jersey. That's sad. There are a lot of busts in that mix. Since the Browns haven't been able to find their franchise QB, they are still looking for one. That's been the biggest need for them this off-season like all the others. With a new front office, owner, and coach starting the 2014 season, there is a lot of speculation as to who the Browns should have on their roster.

Right now, there are two QB's listed for the Browns: Brian Hoyer and Alex Tanney. The Browns have a lot of draft picks and don't look like they're going to add any free agents. Here are the potential QB's the Browns could take in this year's draft:


  • Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville
  • Blake Bortles, UCF
  • Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
  • Derek Carr, Fresno State
  • Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois
  • AJ McCarron, Alabama
  • Zach Mettenberger, LSU
  • Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
  • Tajh Boyd, Clemson
  • Brett Smith, Wyoming
  • David Fales, San Jose State
  • Aaron Murray, Georgia
  • Tom Savage, Pittsburgh
  • Kenny Guiton, Ohio State


There are a few others, but I'm guessing the Browns will take one (or more) of these listed. This list is basically divided into two sections: the top four and everyone else. Derek Carr has worked his way into the top four for a lot of scouts and analysts mostly because the former big three (Bridgewater, Manziel, and Bortles) all have something wrong with them. There's no elite QB that stands out on this list. When Cam Newton was drafted, he was the consensus #1 guy. Same with Andrew Luck. In this year's draft, there are arguments for four different QB's being the #1 guy taken.

Since this is the case, I don't think the Browns should take a QB with their first pick. It's about value to me, and there isn't much if you take a QB with the #4 overall pick this year. For example, Tim Tebow was never going to be a great QB. If Denver had drafted Tebow in the 4th or 5th round, no problem. Good pick. But they took him in the first round. Horrible choice. So depending on how much talent a player has, the real value lies in when the player was drafted.

I'm not talking about need vs. value here. This is the typical debate when it comes to drafting. If there's a really good CB available but you already have three great ones, do you still take him because he's the best player available or do you draft for need? I won't go into that situation. I'm referring to the value of the pick. If the player is projected as a second or third-rounder but a team takes him in the first round, that's a bad value. If a player was projected to go in the first round and you get him in the top of the third, that's a great value.

With that in mind, I don't think any of these QB's are top ten talents. I think you could make arguments for them to be first rounders, but not top ten. Since the next pick the Browns have after #4 is #26, I'd be okay with them taking a QB in this spot. Here's my list of QB's I think the Browns should take at some point after their first selection:


  • Blake Bortles
  • Derek Carr
  • Teddy Bridgewater
  • Tom Savage
  • Zach Mettenberger
  • AJ McCarron
  • Logan Thomas
  • Aaron Murray
  • Kenny Guiton


If the name isn't on this list, I don't think Cleveland should take them. Manziel and Garoppolo are both highly rated but I don't think either are going to do extremely well at the next level. If Bortles, Carr, or Bridgewater are there at 26, take one of them. I really like Mettenberger and think the Browns should take him if he's still there in the 3rd or 4th round. Same with McCarron, Thomas, and Murray. Guiton would be a great pickup in the seventh round, or even sign him as an undrafted free agent.

I'm not too worried about who we get as I am who we should NOT get. Manziel may be a good QB for a little while, but there are so many things that concern me about him. One of the best football minds has recently stated in an interview that Manziel will be a bust. He misses the #1 receiver on open routes, he not only runs a lot but scrambles east-to-west a lot, and his accuracy isn't great. From the two games I watched of him, I thought Mike Evans basically bailed him out 2-3 times a game because of his athletic ability (side-note: I'd really like to draft Evans if we don't take Watkins). I'm not impressed by Garoppolo, either, although I'd take him over Manziel.

If the Browns can grab two guys out of the draft (or one in the draft and one undrafted free agent), they'll be in good shape. Most of the analysts outside of Cleveland think that this is going to be their franchise guy. I don't think so; well, at least not for a little while. I really believe that Brian Hoyer has the capability to be a really good franchise QB. So who the Browns take in the draft won't concern me unless they're on my DON'T TAKE list, like Manziel. Hoyer has had arguably the best internship you could have in the NFL: three years behind Brady and Belichick. He turned the Browns around in three games last year and is a Cleveland guy. No matter who the Browns draft, Hoyer deserves the chance to start and see if he can pick back up where he left off as the Browns starter last year: a perfect 3-0 start with a clutch performance against the Vikings.

So as far as I'm concerned, we already have our franchise QB. Picking up some insurance in the draft will help though.

Saturday, April 5, 2014

Browns Off-Season: Positions



With free agency having mostly passed on, we can get a clearer picture of what's left for the Browns in the draft. The picture above is their current depth chart. As you can see, 13 starters are set on both sides of the ball. This off-season has been a pretty balanced attack. With seven players being picked up, four are on offense and three on defense. The same pattern will most likely be followed in the draft since, out of the top-five needed positions, three are on offense and two on defense. I'll discuss positions on both sides of the ball.

Offense

Offense was supposed to be the side of the ball that struggled last year. Instead, the Browns added two more pro-bowlers to their resume in Gordon and Cameron. Gordon led the league in receiving yards with a mediocre QB rotation. Oh, and he only played in 14 games. Cleveland also did the unthinkable and traded their former first-round draft pick in Trent Richardson to the Colts. I for one was outraged when I heard that, but then as I thought about it, I really liked it. Seeing Richardson struggle in Indianapolis only helps validate those feelings. Here are the positional breakdowns.

QB - B Hoyer and A Tanney. Tanney is expendable, a second-year player who served as a backup with all the injuries to Weeden and Campbell last season. Hoyer won over the starting job the first time Weeden got hurt. What a great move by Chud! Hoyer has spent years in New England under the tutelage of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. He's a Cleveland guy. And even though they were only three games last year, he proved he can not only win but do it in the clutch (see Minnesota game). He doesn't have the strongest arm, but neither does Brady or Manning. I really want to see Hoyer start at least the first four games. I don't think he'll become an elite QB, but I do think that he will be a QB capable of winning a super bowl. Eli Manning, Big Ben, and Joe Flacco aren't elite QB's to me, either. Hoyer can fit his way into that group, especially with this group of weapons he now has.

Despite Hoyer being the possible answer at QB for the Browns, look for Cleveland to draft at least one, possibly two, QB's this year. It's the #1 positional need for Cleveland on paper, but with Hoyer, a new draftee, and either a second draftee or free agent fill-in, the Browns will be able to find their franchise QB this year. Hopefully the Browns don't use their #4 pick to draft Bridgewater, Bortles, or Manziel. They can, though. I think it would be safer to take Carr, McCarron, Mettenberger, or Murray in the second or third round. The difference in value between the "Big 3" and the rest of the field isn't that great, which means there's a high chance of the top three being busts and some of the others pulling a Russell Wilson.


FB - C Ogbonnaya. Really a RB, the FB hasn't been traditionally used in a while although I feel like it could be used a lot better. With the plethra of TE's, they may throw one of them back here. Ogbonnaya is a good catch-and-go option out of the backfield. He did have the second-most yards on the team behind McGahee, and some of his better games were when Hoyer was at QB.

Not really a draft need. Again, with the TE's and other RB's that could fill this spot, Ogbonnaya will stay active in the offense at some position.

RB - B Tate, D Lewis, E Baker, F Whittaker. This was going to be one of the top targets in the draft, but with the addition of Tate in free agency, he's locked up a starting spot. The other three didn't do too well last season but will serve as backups this year. They're young enough to learn still, they just weren't ready to bust out in 2013. Tate will be an explosive RB who defenses will have to account for.

Used to be a high draft need, but they'll probably grab a later-round RB like a James Wilder Jr. or De'Anthony Thomas. The pick will probably be used in the special teams unit as well.

WR - J Gordon, G Little, A Hawkins, T Benjamin, J Cooper, T Gurley. Gordon is easily a top-5 receiver, arguably the best. He's a mixture between size and speed that defenses have a hard time handling. Hawkins and Benjamin are speed guys. Benjamin got hurt last year but is dynamic in the return game. Hawkins has better instincts in the passing game, especially screen options. Once they touch the ball, Gordon, Hawkins, and Benjamin can probably outrun any defense. Little is the one who will need replacing. I'm not convinced he's a #2 guy, so an upgrade here would solidify the receiving corps.

I don't think the need by itself is that urgent, but the Browns are certainly looking at the crop of WR's this year and drooling. There are some great talents out there, especially Sammy Watkins. If he's there at 4, the Browns should take him. He's going to be an elite WR someday in the NFL. Evans and Benjamin are also great options that should be used if there. If they add Watkins, the Browns may have the fastest WR's in the NFL next year.


Defense

This side of the ball was severely upgraded last season, both through free agency and the draft. It already had some strong pieces in it, but it got even better. For a lot of the year the Browns had a top 5 defense last season. It wasn't until Hoyer went out and Campbell struggled with injuries, and ultimately losses piled up, that the Browns D started to give up. It's hard to blame them. This upcoming season, two big pieces have been lost (Jackson and Ward) but some pieces have already been gained, replacing the two lost. This year, there's no reason to think they won't be a top NFL defense.


NT - P Taylor, D Bryant, I Kitchen. Taylor is a beast, one of the more-feared nose tackles in the NFL. Bryant was a free agency acquisition last year who got injured and missed a lot of the season. This year, as long as he can stay healthy, this is a very strong defensive line. Kitchen is a good 3rd option, but if either Taylor or Bryant get injured, this part of the D-line may struggle.

The Browns are pretty solid at this position, and with other positions needing a more immediate upgrade, the middle of the D-line probably won't see any new faces barring injuries.

DE - A Rubin, J Hughes, A Bryant, B Winn, B Sanford. Even though these are the only names on the list, some of the OLB's may shift back and forth to play defensive end throughout the year out of their 3-4 set. Rubin is a bona fide starter. He's been with the Browns for a while and is an above-average player. The rest of the players on the depth chart can easily be replaced. Depending on what the Browns want to do with some of the OLB's, look for the Browns to take at least one DE, probably later in the draft.

ILB - K Dansby, C Robertson, D Eubanks, T Carder. With the departure of captain and leading tackler D'Qwell Jackson, the Browns suddenly had a huge need to fill. So they brought in Karlos Dansby from Arizona, a top 10 inside linebacker. He'll have to learn a new system, but Jackson would have had to as well. Dansby will be a potential pro bowl player this year.

The rest of the group has a lot of questions. Robertson was the part of the defense that was picked on when an opposing offense needed a completion (see Vikings game highlights). I'm not sold on him as a starter in a 3-4 defense. He also would fill the role in their nickel package. The other players are also replaceable. Look for the Browns to find a replacement for this position. Now that free agency has kind of died down, I'm guessing they'll use one of their first 5 picks on an ILB.

OLB - P Kruger, J Sheard, Q Groves, B Mingo, B Magee, E Martin. Kruger was acquired last season in free agency from Baltimore. He's shown that he is a solid starter. Across from him is Sheard who converted from a 4-3 defensive end. Groves was brought in from Arizona and is a good fit for a 3-4 system. Mingo has been used as a pass-rush specialist. Magee and Martin add some depth but are third string players.

The first four players are solid players, but with the lack of depth at DE, look for the Browns to grab an OLB, possibly with their 4th pick. While not a weak position, it could use another play-maker, especially a young one who can be developed.

CB - J Haden, B Skrine, L McFadden, I Trufant, J Posey, T Heath, B Hughes. The Browns have been criticized heavily for not upgrading this position last year. Their response for it was with all the new additions, they didn't want to add another new face to the team. Haden is a top 5 corner back in this league, getting high praise from Deion Sanders during the pro bowl. Haden stated in a recent interview that he is committed to the Browns in the long haul. That's great news; I don't know anyone not named Joe Thomas whose shared that conviction. The point is Haden is a top-tier CB.

The others, however, are a big drop-off. Skrine improved a lot last year but still isn't a solid #2 starter. McFadden is undersized, young, and hasn't developed just yet. He mostly plays in packages. Trufant is a new addition from the Jets, mostly having played special teams. He has the skill to play this position, but he'll have to prove it on the field. If he can hold down the #2 spot across from Haden, this position will have some good depth with Skrine and McFadden available for nickel and dime sets. Posey, Heath, and Hughes will mostly play special teams. The Browns may not feel comfortable with Trufant grabbing the CB spot, so they may draft a CB in the first three rounds, especially considering the number of picks they have. Heath and Hughes may be cut at some point if they do.

FS - T Gipson, J Bademosi. Gipson had a solid season last year while Bademosi played a lot of special teams. This one comes down to the new coaching staff. If Pettine feels that Gipson is a solid starter, then the Browns probably won't draft another FS. If they have their doubts about him, they'll draft another guy and primarily use him on special teams as well until he can show he's a better option than Gipson.

SS - D Whitner, J Poyer, J Aubrey, J Slaughter. Whitner is a pro bowl level player who comes from a winning organization. He's also from Cleveland. He will have this position locked up. The others will be used for special teams and possibly as fill-ins at FS. With this free agency acquisition, the Browns probably won't take a SS in the draft.


With the defense having already received an upgrade last year, one would think this year's draft will mostly be offense. Out of the ten picks, I'm guessing a lot of picks go for defense because we now have a defensive-minded head coach. Once QB, WR, OL, and maybe another QB or OL are taken, Pettine may decide to solidify some of the depth the Browns need at CB, LB, and DE. Every defensive coach likes to have his own guys in there, too.

Overall, the Browns have a lot of strengths in a lot of positions. With a few plug-ins for positions like CB, LB, DE, and OL, the Browns will be above-average if not downright elite. With five pro-bowlers and two or three more who are on the cusp, the Browns have a lot to build on. This year is going to be an exciting year.