The 2014-15 season is over and the Cleveland Cavaliers exceeded expectations. That was hard to do, since they had a lot placed on their shoulders. There was a lot of expectation-shifting during the year. At first they were high. Then watching the Cavs struggle to gel as a new team, they went down. The trades happened (Mozgov, Smith, and Shumpert) and they went back up again. LeBron went down for two weeks and they got a little lower. They went on a big run towards the end of the year and they went back up. They slowed down at the end of the year...back down. They started the playoffs playing really well and they went back up. Love goes out; they go down a little. Irving goes down...they go down a little more. Cavs lose game 1 of the NBA finals; they go down. They win the next two...some people switch their finals pick. Then they lose the next couple games and they go back down.
That's a lot of ups and downs. This off-season may be even more interesting than the last one. Injuries usually create that for any sport. Look at the QB position at Ohio State. Now there are three heisman-caliber candidates vying for one spot. I don't envy Urban Meyer...I'm just happy we have him. With injuries come doubts, questions, benefits and empathy. Would they have won with Irving? What about with Love? What about both? What holes do they have if Love and Irving are both back? Lots of questions to ask and answer going into the off-season.
Before discussing the players, let's start with the coach David Blatt. He was hired before LeBron decided to come back to Cleveland. So this coach was meant to build up a team, not manage a bunch of all-stars. He's never coached in the NBA before, not even as an assistant. This is such a unique situation. He's obviously not a great coach, no arguments there. I don't think he's even a good coach. I'm glad that Brian Windhorst from ESPN said this recently because it's what I've felt going into the playoffs. Blatt is not a great coach and will be on the chopping block unless LeBron feels he should stay. Why would James feel that way? Because with Blatt as the head coach, LeBron runs the team. Bring in a more experienced coach, and LeBron loses some of that control and power. If they hire a Thibbs or Scott Brooks, guys who are good coaches who believe themselves to be great, the dynamic of the team changes. If LeBron doesn't want that, it's up to Blatt if he wants to stay. My gut tells me that he stays at least another year.
It just so happens that almost every player will be a free agent this summer. There are a few players locked up for at least another year: Kyrie Irving, Joe Harris, Brendan Haywood, and Anderson Varejao. Irving is locked up at max money for multiple years as is Varejao. Harris has a couple more as he's on his rookie contract. This is Haywood's last year, but his contract is very interesting. Basically these types of contracts are rare in the NBA these days. He's got about $10 million on it for next year but it's non-guaranteed. This would allow the Cavs to trade him for a player worth $15 million a year and allow the team that gets Haywood the chance to cut him, saving themselves $25 in cap room. It would be a team such as the Pelicans who have a superstar or at least a star but want to rebuild. I'm 99% positive the Cavs aren't trading for Davis, but that's what the contract would allow them to do.
Irving deserves max money and Harris deserves his rookie contract. Harris may not be around very long. I think they'll try to move Haywood as they thought he'd be better than what he was this season. Varejao is interesting. Because of the emergence of Mozgov (they really only got him because Varejao got injured) and Thompson along with the need to pay Love max or near-max money, they may decide to re-structure Varejao's contract. He is scheduled to make $9.6 million this upcoming season and $10 million each of the following two seasons. He's getting older and more injury-prone. What the Cavs would like to do is pay him a little less so they can make some room for Thompson, Mozgov, and Love. If they could get Varejao down to around $6 million, that would easily allow the Cavs to pay Thompson close to $10.5 million without taking on additional salary. Whether or not Varejao does that will be up to him. They could offer him a 1-year deal and probably be able to pay him more after the 2015-16 season when the salary cap goes up.
So those are the non-free agents this off-season. Now let's take a look at the free agents, and there are a ton of them: (UFA = unrestricted free agent; RFA = restricted free agent meaning the Cavs can match an offer if the player accepts it from a different team)
LeBron James - UFA with a player option. If there's one player who's not going anywhere, it's LeBron James. He is basically setting himself up to get a raise every year because he deserves it. At least for the next few years. He will be a Cavalier for life, which is good news for Cleveland fans. The interesting part will be to see when and to who he passes the torch. I'm guessing Kyrie Irving in about 3 years. LeBron will keep getting raises in and around $22 million starting next year.
Kevin Love -UFA with a player option. This is the wild card of the off-season. I don't think Love is a must-sign, but he's a great get if we can get him and at the right price. Whatever happens with Love will determine how the rest of free agency goes. If he leaves to go to Boston or L.A, then there will be a max player spot available. This could make it easier to re-sign Thompson or trade Haywood to bring in a higher caliber player like Lamarcus Aldridge. If Love doesn't re-sign, I don't think we'll get Aldridge and the chances of landing an actual max player through a sign-and-trade or free agency is slim. If Love stays, the question becomes for how much. Had the Cavs won the finals, Love may not be able to garner a max deal. I'm guessing they'll offer him something slightly less than Kyrie, maybe around $14 million. Other teams are going to offer him more money, and if the question becomes that if they do, will he leave a championship-caliber team to play with a different version of his old Minnesota Timberwolves?
Tristan Thompson - RFA. He was discussed earlier. The Cavs need to do everything possible to re-sign this guy. He's too valuable at the position and is the #1 offensive rebounder. He doesn't demand the ball a lot on offense and is good but can play great on the defensive end. I worry that, since he's a restricted free agent, another team will make him a huge offer that he and his agent feel that he can't pass up and the Cavs will either have to match or let him go. This happened with the Jazz a few years ago. The first year, Paul Millsap was a RFA. Portland made him a huge offer, very front-loaded. The Jazz were put in a bind because they couldn't really afford him, especially with most of the money needing to be paid up front. They also couldn't afford not to sign him so they did. The next year the same thing happened with Wes Matthews, same team. The Jazz this time learned from their mistake and let him go. Turns out he was a really good player, but the Jazz got him for a few years for a small amount of money since he went undrafted. It just depends on if he's the type of guy to take a little less than he could get elsewhere to play with a bonified championship-caliber team. It'd be nice to get him at around $10 million.
Timofey Mozgov - RFA with a team option. SIGNED. Need to re-sign. Varejao isn't quite the rim protector or the athlete that Mozgov is, plus Mozzy is younger. He is what made this team a defensive juggernaut and he's the second-most talented offensive big man behind Kevin Love. With Mozgov and Thompson defending the rim and grabbing boards, it allows LeBron to move to the wing/guard position which is what he prefers. There aren't too many big men like this. He's not the offensive rebounder that Thompson is, but I believe he's our best defensive rebounder. He's also mastered the offensive-rebound-tip-out where, rather than rebounding it, puts himself in a position on offense to slap the ball to a teammate. He needs a raise but hopefully not too much of one. I think he should get around the $8 million range. Lock him up for a few years if possible.
Matthew Dellavedova - RFA. If there's a guy whose stock went up this off-season, it's Delly's. He'll probably get some offers from other teams, but I'd be shocked if he took any of them. I think he's okay with playing for less if he can stay with the Cavaliers. I don't think he can have the kind of output he did in the playoffs and sustain it for a whole season. Maybe he's willing to find out for more money, though. If the Cavs can get him around the $2 million mark, which seems low, they'll be able to keep him. There are a lot of good players playing for less than that out there. Cavs could match up to 3 or 4, but this is still your backup PG you're paying for on most teams.If he's offered and takes a contract for more like $4 or 5 million, then the Cavs probably don't keep him.
Iman Shumpert - RFA. This is the guy that I want the Cavs to re-sign the most, not counting LeBron who isn't even a question at this point. More than Love, more than Thompson and Mozgov. Iman still has some improving to do and he's pretty good where he's at. He's very similar to Kawhi Leonard. He's a great defender, on-ball and help-side. Defensively he has great instincts. He can guard positions 1-3. He's tough. Offensively is where he needs most of his work done but he's got some skills. He's a decent ball-handler, could be a really good one. He's not gonna back up Irving, but if Irving and LeBron are out for whatever reason, he can help out Delly or whichever backup PG we have. You can't have too many ball-handlers on the team. He's a good spot shooter but he can be really good. He's okay at driving but he can take it up a level. I don't think he's going to be great at anything except defense, but he can be really good at almost everything else. He can backup LeBron or play the two. He's the perfect starting two because he doesn't need the ball a lot but can put up points and can play the other team's best player for a majority of the start. LeBron usually guards the best player down the stretch, it helps to have a guy like this guarding him at the beginning. This should be the easiest match if he accepts a qualifying offer somewhere else. I would give him $6-8 million easy.
J.R. Smith - UFA with a player option. J.R Smith could opt into another year of his contract, but until he does, he's considered a free agent. I never thought I'd say this...the Cavs should bring J.R Smith back. If they can do it for $5 million that'd be even better. He'd make just over $6 next year if he opts in. He's a really good shooter, streaky, but he stayed relatively consistent throughout the playoffs. He can create some offense, he's a better defender than people give him credit for. He's got a different attitude playing in Cleveland with LeBron. The King can keep guys like this in check. Having Smith as not only a shooter but someone who can take some pressure off of LeBron, especially in big moments, is something that's worth having. I don't think Smith is willing to go somewhere else to who's not a championship contender, and I don't know if there's a better fit among the championship teams for him. It's in everyone's best interest for him to stay in Cleveland.
James Jones - UFA. Jones was lured by LeBron at the beginning of the season. I think everyone's happy that he came. Jones is a year younger than Mike Miller and two years younger than Shawn Marion. He's 34. I think he has another year or two left in him if he wants it. He signed a 1-year contract for $1.5 million but I think based on what we saw in the playoffs, he gets a little raise. He'd be happy to take $2 million, so I think barring some unprecedented event, he'll be a Cavalier next season. Keep shooting, James!
Mike Miller - UFA with a player option. Miller played a lot less than I thought he was going to. He's a good shooter, but Jones really took his minutes. Maybe he didn't want them. He is 35 years old. He has the option of opting into a $2.85 million contract next season. If he's not going to play as much this upcoming season, it'd be nice to get him at about half of that price, especially at a year older. Miller will decide whether or not to remain in the NBA. If he stays, he'll play in Cleveland with a small chance he goes back to Miami. If he goes, he goes out into the sunset.
Kendrick Perkins - UFA. At only 30 years old, he's got some years ahead of him. He just looks like he's 40 years old. He's the same age as LeBron, though. I don't know about Perkins. He may not like it in Cleveland despite their success. Maybe he'd go back to Boston. Maybe he'll retire since he didn't play a ton this year. He's a question mark, but really it wouldn't be a huge loss if he didn't come back next year. I'd love to see him knocking more people down, though. If he stays, he'll need to take the veteran's minimum of around $500,000. Unless he plans on playing a lot more, he shouldn't get paid a lot more.
Shawn Marion - UFA. This may be the guy to retire as he's the oldest at 36 and has already verbally acknowledged his desire to retire. He hardly played at all this year. His leadership was valuable this year, especially for a young team. This past season he made $1.5 million. If he can take a small pay-cut, the Cavs would probably be willing to keep him around. Most likely Marion calls it a career and gives the Cavs an extra million dollars or two to work with in signing others.
Here's the free agent math:
Irving - $15 million
Harris - 01
Varejao - 10
Haywood - 10*
LeBron - 22
Love - 14
Thompson - 10
Mozgov - 08
Delly - 02
Shumpert - 07
Smith - 06
Jones - 02
Miller - 03
Perkins - 0.5
Marion - 00
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Total $110.5 million
The salary cap for 2014 is $63 million with the luxury tax kicking in once you hit $76 million. Next year it is scheduled to go up slightly, maybe up to $90 million if we're lucky, but in 2016 it's scheduled to go up a lot due in part to the new TV contract the NBA is going to sign. The NBA is revenue-sharing, so when they get more revenue as a league, the salary cap goes up since the players are to get 51% of the revenue from the CBA agreement. I'm guessing it doesn't go much higher than $80 million next year. So either the Cavs are willing to pay the luxury tax, they're not willing to keep everyone, or some combination. If Love really wants out, and the Cavs are willing to part with him, they could do a sign-and-trade which would allow them to get something back that would be a lot less costly and possibly dump Haywood's $10 million in the process. They could realistically cut Haywood as well since his contract is non-guaranteed. If Varejao would be willing to take $5 less and re-structure his contract, then we get closer to $80 than $110. The two biggest money-makers, LeBron and Kyrie, aren't going anywhere so keep $37 million on the books. Oh, and they're worth it.
If players are willing to sign a 1-year contract for less money to keep everyone together and go for another NBA finals appearance, they could probably keep it under the cap assuming they drop Haywood's contract and probably re-negotiate Varejao's. They'll need at least 13 players on the active roster, although they will be able to sign two draft picks this year. Since they're low picks, they'll probably be under $2 for the pair next season.
Let's assume they keep everyone except Haywood. That means they'll have the following positions locked up:
- Post - Varejao, Mozgov, Love, Thompson, Perkins
- Can play Post or Wing - Jones, Miller, James
- Guards/Wings who aren't PG's - Shumpert, Smith, Harris
- Point Guards - Irving, Dellavedova
They are very post-heavy so my guess is that they'll grab a PG and a SF, someone who can replace LeBron once he gets good enough. They'll most likely send at least one to the D-league for a while. With LeBron who likes to handle the ball as much as he does, they should take a SG or SF with their first pick. They have a need at point, but with two very good to elite PG's on the roster, they'd do better to find another wing. Shumpert and Smith will both split time at the two, playing together a little when the Cavs go small. They'll need a legit 3 who can guard some of the longer wings out there.
Here's a look at some of the players they could take in the first round:
Rashad Vaughn - 6'6" SG from UNLV. Raw, has a lot of potential, NBA body but will need some help with fundamentals. Decent mid-range shooter. Would be a great addition to a team where he didn't have to play right away.
Jerian Grant - 6'5" SG from Notre Dame. Can play point as well. Not a great shooter, but has some length and plays well on defense. Great passer and with the pick & roll.
Terry Rozier - 6'2" PG from Louisville. Great scorer, finisher, and defender. Long and athletic. Turns it over and doesn't have great court awareness for a PG.
R.J Hunter - 6'6" SG from Georgia State. A cheaper Mike Dunleavy. He's a great shooter, long, good passer and high basketball I.Q. Not very athletic, struggles against more athletic players.
Here's a look at the guys they could take in the second round:
J.P Takoto - 6'5" SF from UNC. Not a great shooter and doesn't create offense, he's a long, athletic defender with a lot of upside.
Timothe Luwawu - 6'6" SF from France. I don't know a ton about him, I don't know if anyone does. It says he's a long, athletic wing who can shoot but who needs to add strength. He's a typical Euro player. The Cavaliers have taken a lot of chances, a lot of them paying off, with Euro players.
Aaron Harrison - 6'6" SG from Kentucky. He seems to have an "it" factor despite his inconsistency. He's not as great a shooter as his twin, Andrew, but he's a strong, capable defender. He's also a combo guard which may be appealing to the Cavs considering their lack of PG depth. Cleveland would be a good enough situation for him to come in and get in line.
Aside from the draft, there are some intriguing free agents out there the Cavs could take if they don't keep the team intact. It's pretty hard to keep everyone around, even going as far as they did. Here are some players the Cavs could take a look at and possibly make a run for:
- Dorell Wright, SF Portland
- K.J McDaniels, SG/SF Philadelphia
- Gerald Green, SG Phoenix
- Norris Cole, SG New Orleans
- Mike Dunleavy, SF Chicago
There's been some chatter in the NBA world that Dwyane Wade is unhappy with his contract negotiations with the Miami Heat. It looks like Pat Riley wants Wade to take another pay-cut in order to make some room for players like Kevin Durant. Wade doesn't want that. A lot of Cleveland fans are already convinced that Wade is headed to Cleveland. First of all, this is far from a sure thing. Cleveland can't afford to pay Love, Irving, James, and Wade all max contracts. Irving already has one and James is getting one. Love may or may not get one and Wade is looking for one. If Love doesn't stay, there's a long shot that Wade signs for a year just to get LeBron a ring in Cleveland. It wouldn't be long-term and it wouldn't solve Cleveland's needs. It would be a fun story.
A lot is going to depend on who they keep and who they don't. If they're able to re-sign everyone, I think the Cavs need to draft a true PG. It's still a hole. They also need a SF to fill-in for LeBron. He's got to be able to play multiple positions just like James does. Wing players are more the weakness, especially since this year they'll not only have Love, Mozgov, and Thompson potentially back but also Varejao. That's a legitimate front line.
A side note to Cavaliers fans. We need to manage our expectations better. We've never won an NBA finals in the history of our franchise. Until these playoffs, we'd never even won a finals game. We haven't earned the right to say "LeBron, if you don't win with this team, you suck." We can't go calling for people's heads when things don't go our way. There are reasons nobody has wanted to come to Cleveland...some of it has to do with the fans. Let's not bail on our teams when they aren't as successful as we want them to be. It usually happens with the Browns, but it's happened when LeBron has played for us. He doesn't give up at the end of games, and even if he does, he's the reason we're in them in the first place. We need to recognize who butters our bread. Think we'd even be in playoff contention without James? Don't be so quick to kill him on social media. Let's try and actually support our teams instead of holding out hope and judging teams when they don't win it all.
The Cavs have a lot of work to do in the off-season. It's miraculous that they were able to gel and make the finals while bringing in new players all throughout the year. They have a completely new roster than they did last year when only Irving, Dellavedova, Thompson, and Varejao were here. While they don't need a ton of time to make things work, they'll need support and understanding. We have the best player on the planet leading us, so let's just have some faith and get amped up next year for what could be our first championship year ever!
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