The Browns have a league-leading ten draft picks in this years' draft. Although, more and more, it looks like they may be subject to a loss of one (or more) of these draft picks as a consequence of textgate, but here they are as they currently stand:
Round 1: pick 12 overall 12
Round 1: pick 19 overall 19 (from Buffalo)
Round 2: pick 11 overall 43
Round 3: pick 13 overall 77
Round 4: pick 12 overall 111
Round 4: pick 16 overall 115 (from Buffalo)
Round 5: pick 11 overall 147
Round 6: pick 13 overall 189
Round 6: pick 26 overall 202 (from Baltimore)
Round 7: pick 12 overall 229
The Browns should be able to put together some players as six of the picks come in the first four rounds. The draft will take place starting on April 30. Last year, these were the picks by Cleveland:
Round 1: Justin Gilbert, CB from Oklahoma State (the other OSU)
Round 1: Johnny Manziel, QB from Texas A&M
Round 2: Joel Bitonio, OG from Nevada
Round 3: Christian Kirksey, ILB from Iowa
Round 3: Terrance West, RB from Towson
Round 4: Pierre Desir, CB from Lindenwood
Heading out of free agency and into the draft, the Browns needs have changed a little bit. I believe that their five biggest needs (in order) are QB, OLB, TE, D-line, and O-line. If we keep both of our first round picks, there is a plethora of opinions out there on who we'll take. NFL.com "experts" lean this way:
Lance Zierlin: Marcus Mariota (QB, Oregon) and Breshad Perriman (WR, UCF)
Charles Davis: Kevin White (WR, West Virginia) and Danny Shelton (DT, Washington)
Bucky Brooks: Danny Shelton (DT, Washington) and Ereck Flowers (OT, Miami)
Daniel Jeremiah: Danny Shelton (DT, Washington) and Ereck Flowers (OT, Miami)
Charley Casserly: Marcus Mariota (QB, Oregon) in a trade to the NYJ and DeVante Parker (WR, Louisville)
Brian Baldinger: Marcus Mariota (QB, Oregon) and T.J Clemmings (OT, Pitt)
The two big ESPN experts made their 3.0 mock draft picks as well:
Mel Kiper Jr.: Danny Shelton (DT, Washington) and Ereck Flowers (OT, Miami)
Todd McShay: DeVante Parker (WR, Louisville) and Ereck Flowers (OT, Miami)
Here are what the Cleveland Browns experts (ClevelandBrowns.com) have to say on the matter:
Kevin Jones: Danny Shelton (DT, Washington) and Bud Dupree (OLB, Kentucky)
Nathan Zegura: Danny Shelton (DT, Washington) and Randy Gregory (OLB, Nebraska)
Andrew Gribble: Shane Ray (OLB, Missouri) and La'el Collins (OL, LSU)
Matt Whilhelm: Danny Shelton (DT, Washington) and Andrus Peat (OL, Stanford)
And I suppose I'll add in Yahoo Sports' writer in his 2.0 version of the mock draft:
Shaun King: Marcus Mariota (QB, Oregon) and Malcolm Brown (DT, Texas)
There you have it. Yahoo, ESPN, NFL.com, and the ClevelandBrowns.com mock drafters have all selected who they feel the Browns will choose. If we're keeping tabs, here are the scores:
Danny Shelton: 7 votes
Ereck Flowers and Marcus Mariota: 4 votes
DeVante Parker: 2 votes
Malcolm Brown, Andrus Peat, Shane Ray, La'el Collins, Randy Gregory, Bud Dupree, T.J. Clemmings, Kevin White, and Breshad Perriman: 1 vote each
So the consensus is that during the first round, the Browns will probably grab one offensive player and one defensive player. I'm okay with that strategy. If I had to vote on what they will do, I'm guessing they'll take Shelton first and Flowers second. They might grab Mariota if he's still there, but I don't think he will be. Same with Randy Gregory - he's going top ten. Same with Andrus Peat. I'm glad that there aren't a lot of WR's chosen because I don't think that's as big a need now with the additions of Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline. They also can still re-sign Miles Austin and, despite not being eligible next year, they have Josh Gordon. I don't think it's a huge need, but WR's are always a sexy pick. Having a defensive-minded head coach may prove to be beneficial in this situation.
Pettine loves corners and has five good ones right now, so he won't take a CB this early in the draft. If Shelton is there, they'll probably take him to play alongside Phil Taylor. If they don't think Taylor will stay healthy, they'll really take him. Malcolm Brown and Eddie Goldman (FSU) are the other DT considerations at the 12 spot (Goldman at the 19 spot). I like Shelton better because he's a bigger guy. He plays big, and to be a run-stopper, especially in a 3-4, you need a big guy in the middle. With him and Taylor in nickel and dime packages, they're big enough guys to plug up the middle on a fake pass and, if they have enough time which they might with the quality of our corners and safeties, they may be able to put pressure if not get to the QB on 3rd and longs. I like Shelton here.
The 19 spot will be interesting. I like the idea of getting Flowers. My thought is you can't have too many good O-linemen, especially with the Browns being a running team. He's a big guy, disciplined, and coach-able. By getting talented, disciplined players around Joe Thomas and Alex Mack, they can put together a core of O-linemen that can be the top unit in the NFL for the next several years. Thomas and Mack are fairly young and Bitonio is a second-year player. By grabbing a first or second round O-lineman this year and next year, you just got your O-line for the next few years. Clemmings is the other OL they could grab at this spot. I guess they could grab Collins from LSU, but he's projected at the bottom of the first round. This will be tough because there are a lot of guys who will probably be available right here who the Browns don't need like a RB, several WR's, two CB's, two DT's (if they've already grabbed Shelton, they won't need another), and an ILB.
One need they could address here is OLB. It's possible that Shane Ray slides a little bit here, although I'm cautious of taking another SEC defensive POY from Missouri. The last one turned out to be a bit of a bust. Vic Beasley from Clemson is a possibility. If Beasley is available at the 12 spot since some think Shelton won't be there, this is the guy I would take. He's got tremendous upside at the position. Eli Harold is a guy who could be available at 19, but there's a good chance he's also available at 43 when the Browns pick again. I'm not a huge fan; he's very one-dimensional and we already have an OLB who fits his skill-set in Mingo. I'd rather use the 19 spot to grab an OT or TE if he's still here.
Speaking of TE's, there aren't any great TE's projected to be first-round talents. There are a couple in the second and third rounds: Maxx Williams from Minnesota, Clive Walford from Miami, and my preference Jeff Heuerman from the 2015 national champions Ohio State. I like Heuerman because of his size and athleticism. He had an injury in college which dropped his status a little bit. He's projected to go late third round/early fourth round, so grabbing him in the third round would be doable. He's a native of Columbus, which means he's probably more of a Bengals fan than a Browns fan, but that's okay. Williams from Minnesota, if available in the third and Heuerman is off the board, would also be a good choice for that third round pick.
Basically, with their first four picks, they can address four of their five biggest needs. QB is going to be the wild card. If Mariota is available at 12, should the Browns take him? I don't think they should trade up to get him, so cross that option off. Although, it is the Browns...so....you never know. If he's available at 12 and Cleveland does take him, they need to get rid of Manziel. You can't have Manziel, McCown, and Mariota all on your roster. McCown and one of those guys can fit, but not two. Mariota is a better choice over Manziel. Heck, I would personally keep Shaw over Manziel but the Browns have more invested in Johnny football so they may end up keeping him...unless they get Mariota. If that's the case, they'd ship Manziel off to someone who actually thinks he'd do well (maybe the Cowboys?) and get a mid to late round pick for him. My thought is addition by subtraction.
Normally I wouldn't go with Mariota here, but if he falls to us given our current QB situation, I think the Browns should pull the trigger. There's no guarantee we'll get a good shot at a franchise QB next year, so Mariota, while I don't think will be a great NFL player, may prove to be a reliable NFL starter. That's more than I can say about anyone the Browns currently have on their roster, McCown included. If Mariota can develop a little bit this year and take the reigns over next year, I'm okay with that. If they do get Mariota, then I think they should take an OLB if Beasley or Ray are available. If not, go with an OL like Flowers. Our second-round pick can then be either an OL if we didn't take one or a DT. There are some good DT's projected to be available here. Third round, we should go after a TE in Heuerman or Williams.
We'll have two fourth-round picks, one of which can be spent on the position we haven't yet taken out of our top five and the other on one of three potential WR's here. After that, I'm a believer in taking the best player available regardless of position.
If we don't take Mariota with that first pick, then we'll be looking to grab a young QB along the way. I'd take a look at Bryce Petty from Baylor. He'll be available in the second and early third rounds, which is probably where I'd take him. If he falls to the early fourth round, the Browns should look at packaging their two fourth round picks to move up to get him. Third and fourth rounds are where a lot of teams with established QB's like New England and New Orleans look to grab a possible replacement/intern. Petty will be gone by the end of the fourth, probably the end of the third.
This is all assuming we keep our high draft picks in lieu of textgate.
So there you have it. My preference would be Mariota if he's there, then Beasley, then Shelton, then Ray, then Flowers. I think all of those guys, except maybe Flowers, will be gone by our first pick, though. Everyone after that should be determined by who we've already taken. Those five spots should be addressed first. We need to take a TE by the fourth right at the latest. We don't need an O-lineman because with Mack healthy, we have a top three O-line. With Taylor coming back on defense in the middle, we don't need a DT but it would be really nice to grab one. We do need an OLB, though, and should have one by the fourth round. I'd take a speedy WR although we already have a bunch (Gordon, Austin, Bowe, Hartline, Benjamin, Hawkins, and Moore) so I don't think that's a necessity, either.
I'll end by restating my biggest want: a franchise QB. If that's Mariota, great. If it's Petty, great. Other than those two, let's build up the pieces around the QB and get our guy no later than next year. If McCown can do a decent job, with all the other pieces being added this year, the Browns have a shot at the playoffs this year. They've proven they can beat Pittsburgh and Cincy, and at 7-9 last year (7-4 at one point), they were easily the best 4th-place team in any division. If they played in any other division, they'd probably have been in the mix for a playoff seed. It's tough when all the other teams in your division win 10 games. If any of those three teams slip, the Browns are in a good position to take their spot.
We haven't been able to say that (seriously) in a long time now.
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