College football is finally here! There are some exciting things to look forward to. This is the time of year when every team still has something valuable: hope. Once we get further into the season, some teams lose that hope. That's why I'm not really against teams scheduling a couple of soft opponents at the beginning of the year because they can hope longer. It makes it more enjoyable.
There are some new things to look forward to this year in college football, and I'll just touch on them briefly.
The new playoff system is set to take place along with the deciders of who gets into it: the new playoff selection committee. Now, instead of a combination of computers and humans, we'll have playoff teams selected by 12 men and 1 woman. I've stated before that I don't think this solves the problem of who should be given the chance to play for a national championship. Now, instead of a #3 and possibly a #4 team bickering, you'll have teams 5-10 potentially asking why they weren't chosen as the #4 seed.
Take last year as an example. With Florida State, Auburn, Alabama, and Michigan State being playoff teams (Auburn and Alabama would have had to play again in the playoffs), that left out 11-2 Stanford, 11-1 Baylor, 12-1 Ohio State, 11-2 Missouri, 10-2 South Carolina, 10-2 Oregon, and 10-2 Oklahoma. Oklahoma handled Alabama, a potential playoff team, so why shouldn't they be good enough to get in instead of Michigan State? Some thought Stanford was the best team, they only lost a game as well. Same with Baylor. Shouldn't a 2-loss SEC team like Missouri or South Carolina get in over a 1-loss Big Ten team? Ohio State's loss was to Michigan State, so they probably didn't have quite as good an argument. But you can see how instead of possibly only Michigan State arguing that they should have been ranked #2 in the BCS system, you now can have multiple teams arguing over the #4 spot. It's like March Madness...there isn't a lot of bickering over who gets the four #1 seeds, but there are a lot of teams complaining that they didn't get in at the #68 spot. So look for this new playoff system and the teams selected in it by the committee to take some heat.
The Pac-12 has come a long way. I don't think they'll be able to sustain it, but I think they're at their peak. Oregon will start to decline as their genius of a head coach Chip Kelly has taken his talents to Philly. Stanford will always be a good, solid team but they've exceeded their potential the past few years thanks to the next Peyton Manning (Andrew Luck) and a great head coach who left in Jim Harbaugh. USC will probably rise and the Arizona teams (Arizona, Arizona State) will continue to have good and bad years. Washington will be interesting to see with their new head coach Chris Peterson from Boise State. UCLA is riding high right now, too, but historically-speaking they can't keep this act up for long. However, if these Pac-12 powers can stay as good as they are, they'll be locked in as the second-best conference for a while.
The power five conferences will be looking to separate themselves from the rest of college football soon. This will enable them to ultimately control the money. Yes, players may end up getting a stipend or actual salaries (this is also a dumb idea, but there are things the NCAA should change in regards to this), but if the power five can get some power and control over the college football landscape, then they'll be able to put more money in their pockets. Especially now with a new playoff system potentially expanding.
I think those are some of the things to watch this year, but now let's get to the teams.
- SEC Winner - Auburn
- Pac-12 Winner - Oregon
- Big 12 Winner - Oklahoma
- Big 10 Winner - Ohio State
- ACC Winner - Florida State
- AAC Winner - UCF
- MWC Winner - Fresno State
Looks like I'm going with the safe plays, except for Auburn and Ohio State.
The SEC is just a crap-shoot. You could list four teams, possibly more, and have great arguments for each. No one would bat an eyebrow. South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and Auburn are all contenders. All have hard schedules, Auburn's being the most brutal. However, I think they feel they have something to prove. They'll have one loss in their 4 week grind against South Carolina, at Ole Miss, against Texas A&M, and at Georgia. They also travel to Alabama and Kansas State. They'll beat Alabama again in the Iron Bowl in a less-dramatic fashion and finish off South Carolina, possibly again, in the SEC championship. The SEC has the highest number of different winners predicted by the ESPN experts as the SEC.
The Pac-12 has three real contenders: Oregon, Stanford, and UCLA. I don't believe the hype on UCLA, although I think they'll be good. Last year they ended up with 3 losses, and I think they'll have about that this year. They play Texas, at Arizona State, Oregon, and finish with Stanford. The Cardinal schedule doesn't do them any favors: against USC, at Washington, at Arizona State, at Notre Dame, and at Oregon. They'll finish strong with a win at UCLA but won't have won enough games to overtake Oregon. Even though UCLA or USC make it to the Pac-12 championship game, this is Oregon's year once again.
The Big 12 consists of one front-runner (Oklahoma) and several dark horses. Oklahoma State, Texas, Kansas State, and Baylor could all potentially beat out the Sooners for that top spot. Last year, Baylor did it. Texas beat Oklahoma last year as well. Anything is possible with this conference, but if you had to put money on it, you'd probably pick Oklahoma and their returning core. Plus this year, their schedule is a little easier as their harder games against all four dark horses are at home.
The Big 10 race just got a little more interesting. With Braxton Miller of my Buckeyes getting hurt, the two-dog race between Michigan State and Ohio State seemed to lean a little more green. I really like J.T Barrett, the new starting QB for OSU. He's been in Urban's program for a couple years and he's a much more accurate thrower than Braxton. So yes, the duel-threat gets taken away, but defenses now have to drop an extra guy or two into coverage as opposed to using them as spy's for Miller's run game because Barrett can slice up defenses if they don't. With a load of faster receivers and hybrid tailbacks like Dontre Wilson, Meyer is known for getting the best out of his players and this team is no different. With something to prove and chips on their shoulders, Ohio State beats the Spartans on Nov. 8 and upends Wisconsin in the Big 10 championship game. While Michigan State is surely the favorite, Ohio State has what it takes to win.
The ACC winner is going to be Florida State. Is this even up for debate? Clemson at 16 who got shellacked last year? FSU is just too good right now for their conference with teams like Miami, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech down. Duke may have gone as high as they can go. The Seminoles have an easy path to the first playoff this year. Maybe Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, or even Florida gives them a game this year. That's a big maybe.
The AAC, American Athletic Conference, is no longer a part of the power five and for good reason. I don't recognize most of their teams anymore. They only have three of the eight teams from 2010. It's basically some of the all-star teams from the non-BCS conferences of a couple years ago. That being said, UCF ran the table on them last year with Louisville being a close second. Louisville is good enough to win the conference, but with a new coach and QB, I think it's a little much to overcome. Plus, Louisville leaves for the ACC this year. I think we need another conference named the ACA or CAC to make it more confusing.
I don't really follow the MWC anymore since BYU, Utah, and TCU all left. I think that Utah State is becoming a really good team. Aside from the Aggies, Boise State, and Fresno State, I don't think this conference is very good.
My prediction for the four playoff teams are (1) Florida State, (2) Auburn, (3) Oregon, and (4) Oklahoma. Florida State routs the Sooners and Auburn squashes the Ducks setting up a rematch of last year's national championship, only this time the Tigers beat out the Seminoles. It feels like it's time to have an Alabama school win the title, doesn't it? I mean, it's been a whole year and it's starting to feel weird.
Good luck to all teams out there except Michigan!
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