For the past 15 years, the Browns have had a lot of different QB's. The most in the NFL by far. I'm sure you've seen this picture at some point in time:
There are 20 names on that jersey. That's sad. There are a lot of busts in that mix. Since the Browns haven't been able to find their franchise QB, they are still looking for one. That's been the biggest need for them this off-season like all the others. With a new front office, owner, and coach starting the 2014 season, there is a lot of speculation as to who the Browns should have on their roster.
Right now, there are two QB's listed for the Browns: Brian Hoyer and Alex Tanney. The Browns have a lot of draft picks and don't look like they're going to add any free agents. Here are the potential QB's the Browns could take in this year's draft:
- Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville
- Blake Bortles, UCF
- Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
- Derek Carr, Fresno State
- Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois
- AJ McCarron, Alabama
- Zach Mettenberger, LSU
- Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
- Tajh Boyd, Clemson
- Brett Smith, Wyoming
- David Fales, San Jose State
- Aaron Murray, Georgia
- Tom Savage, Pittsburgh
- Kenny Guiton, Ohio State
There are a few others, but I'm guessing the Browns will take one (or more) of these listed. This list is basically divided into two sections: the top four and everyone else. Derek Carr has worked his way into the top four for a lot of scouts and analysts mostly because the former big three (Bridgewater, Manziel, and Bortles) all have something wrong with them. There's no elite QB that stands out on this list. When Cam Newton was drafted, he was the consensus #1 guy. Same with Andrew Luck. In this year's draft, there are arguments for four different QB's being the #1 guy taken.
Since this is the case, I don't think the Browns should take a QB with their first pick. It's about value to me, and there isn't much if you take a QB with the #4 overall pick this year. For example, Tim Tebow was never going to be a great QB. If Denver had drafted Tebow in the 4th or 5th round, no problem. Good pick. But they took him in the first round. Horrible choice. So depending on how much talent a player has, the real value lies in when the player was drafted.
I'm not talking about need vs. value here. This is the typical debate when it comes to drafting. If there's a really good CB available but you already have three great ones, do you still take him because he's the best player available or do you draft for need? I won't go into that situation. I'm referring to the value of the pick. If the player is projected as a second or third-rounder but a team takes him in the first round, that's a bad value. If a player was projected to go in the first round and you get him in the top of the third, that's a great value.
With that in mind, I don't think any of these QB's are top ten talents. I think you could make arguments for them to be first rounders, but not top ten. Since the next pick the Browns have after #4 is #26, I'd be okay with them taking a QB in this spot. Here's my list of QB's I think the Browns should take at some point after their first selection:
- Blake Bortles
- Derek Carr
- Teddy Bridgewater
- Tom Savage
- Zach Mettenberger
- AJ McCarron
- Logan Thomas
- Aaron Murray
- Kenny Guiton
If the name isn't on this list, I don't think Cleveland should take them. Manziel and Garoppolo are both highly rated but I don't think either are going to do extremely well at the next level. If Bortles, Carr, or Bridgewater are there at 26, take one of them. I really like Mettenberger and think the Browns should take him if he's still there in the 3rd or 4th round. Same with McCarron, Thomas, and Murray. Guiton would be a great pickup in the seventh round, or even sign him as an undrafted free agent.
I'm not too worried about who we get as I am who we should NOT get. Manziel may be a good QB for a little while, but there are so many things that concern me about him. One of the best football minds has recently stated in an interview that Manziel will be a bust. He misses the #1 receiver on open routes, he not only runs a lot but scrambles east-to-west a lot, and his accuracy isn't great. From the two games I watched of him, I thought Mike Evans basically bailed him out 2-3 times a game because of his athletic ability (side-note: I'd really like to draft Evans if we don't take Watkins). I'm not impressed by Garoppolo, either, although I'd take him over Manziel.
If the Browns can grab two guys out of the draft (or one in the draft and one undrafted free agent), they'll be in good shape. Most of the analysts outside of Cleveland think that this is going to be their franchise guy. I don't think so; well, at least not for a little while. I really believe that Brian Hoyer has the capability to be a really good franchise QB. So who the Browns take in the draft won't concern me unless they're on my DON'T TAKE list, like Manziel. Hoyer has had arguably the best internship you could have in the NFL: three years behind Brady and Belichick. He turned the Browns around in three games last year and is a Cleveland guy. No matter who the Browns draft, Hoyer deserves the chance to start and see if he can pick back up where he left off as the Browns starter last year: a perfect 3-0 start with a clutch performance against the Vikings.
So as far as I'm concerned, we already have our franchise QB. Picking up some insurance in the draft will help though.
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